Beijing Institute of Technology Releases 15th Annual Energy Economy Forecast Report

078eb2c3e8763104bf6b0d6f839bd57f 2 The 15th Launch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy

BEIJING, Jan. 25, 2025 — The fifteenth annual release of energy economy forecasting and prospects research reports took place in Beijing on January 12, 2025. The event was jointly hosted by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology and the Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality. Eight new reports were unveiled.

These reports, compiled by Professor Yi-Ming Wei‘s research team, analyze the previous year’s shifts in global and domestic energy economics and climate policies. Published annually by the Beijing Institute of Technology since 2011, the reports have consistently attracted significant attention.

Professor Yi-Ming Wei, Director of the Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, chaired the event and introduced the attending experts. Professor Ben-Cong Wang, Vice President of Beijing Institute of Technology, also attended and delivered a keynote address. He highlighted the reports’ alignment with national energy and carbon reduction strategies, focusing on key issues such as energy security, markets, and low-carbon development. The reports have garnered considerable praise from various sectors. Professor Hua Liao, Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, provided an overview of the event, reviewed the 2024 energy economic landscape, and offered predictions for 2025. Professors Qiao-Mei Liang and Bi-Ying Yu subsequently presided over additional report presentations.

I. Macroeconomic Trends in Energy Economics

In 2025, the energy economy will serve as a stabilizing force within the broader macroeconomic landscape. Wind and solar power sectors are expected to demonstrate robust growth, while biomass and hydropower are poised to show significant potential. Clean, low-carbon initiatives coupled with coordinated industry development will be the key drivers of energy economic growth.

II. Energy Market Development

Global crude oil demand growth is projected to lag behind supply in 2025, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Geopolitical factors and international competition will contribute to short-term price volatility. Brent and WTI crude oil prices are forecast to average between $67–$77 and $62–$72 per barrel, respectively. Since 2011, the price index of key energy transition raw materials has shown fluctuating patterns without a sustained upward trend or consistently high levels. This volatility has been less pronounced than that of the overall energy price index.

III. Energy Technology and Industrial Development

The EU’s New Battery Law’s carbon threshold regulations could lead to substantial economic losses and job displacement in both China and the EU. Increased EU lithium battery production to address supply gaps risks capital and labor shortages, potentially driving up production and usage costs. Carbon capture technologies, characterized by complexity, diverse carbon sources, high technical intensity, and significant capital needs, are crucial factors influencing CCUS project investments. During the 15th Five-Year Plan, prioritizing low energy consumption, low costs, and high efficiency in fundamental research, technology development, equipment manufacturing, integrated demonstrations, and industrial cultivation is crucial for improving China’s carbon capture technology and competitiveness. Driven by the digital economy, data centers’ electricity consumption will reach 4.85% of total societal electricity consumption by 2030, offering significant flexible power potential. Synergy among computing power, electricity, and heat will be a crucial aspect of integrating information and energy within a carbon-neutral development framework.

IV. Global Climate Governance

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) – encompassing natural language processing, deep learning, and multimodal information processing – are transforming climate change governance research. Expanding AI applications and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration are crucial for addressing climate challenges. China’s national carbon market has shown considerable progress after three years of development. A comprehensive regulatory framework is emerging, incentive and constraint mechanisms are being established, and emission reduction impacts are becoming apparent.

Thirty media organizations, including China Media Group and People’s Daily Online, covered the press conference. Approximately 3000 individuals participated both online and offline.

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SOURCE Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology

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