`
SINGAPORE, May 8, 2025 — HTX DeepThink is HTX’s signature market analysis series, offering insights into global macro trends, vital economic data, and significant happenings in the crypto space. In an era defined by instability, HTX DeepThink strives to empower readers to “Find Order in Chaos.”
This week’s HTX DeepThink explores the potential impact of Trump’s new token plan on crypto markets, the reasons behind the Fed’s steady interest rate policy, and the underlying risks associated with Bitcoin’s recovery. In this edition, Chloe (@) from HTX Research provides a comprehensive analysis.
Trump Media Group’s Utility Token: A Potential Shift in U.S. Equity Tokenization
On April 30, Trump Media & Technology Group revealed plans to partner with the Truth digital wallet for the launch of a new utility token named DJT. Initially, DJT will be used for Truth+ subscription payments, with the intention of expanding its utility throughout the Truth ecosystem.
This marks the first instance of a publicly traded U.S. media firm launching a utility token connected to a real-world product ecosystem, representing a significant convergence between traditional equities and on-chain asset formats. While the launch date, blockchain platform, and tokenomics are yet to be announced, the rollout seems to follow Trump’s established approach: generate hype first, disclose details later.
DJT is entering the market at an opportune time, as memecoin enthusiasm diminishes and the focus shifts to utility and payment integration. Mirroring HTX’s recent listing of WLFI’s USD1, the demand for “practical crypto assets” is on the rise. DJT combines impactful political branding with tangible ecosystem support, offering the possibility of long-term value that extends beyond the fleeting nature of meme-driven tokens.
U.S.-China Trade Talks: A Temporary Easing Amidst Persistent Tensions
This weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jamison Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. These discussions represent the first high-level trade negotiations between the U.S. and China since tensions escalated in the spring of 2025, suggesting a possible improvement in diplomatic relations.
Despite ongoing disagreements regarding who initiated the talks, the meeting itself strongly suggests renewed engagement and diplomatic progress. With tariffs at record levels, markets perceive the summit as a short-term reduction in geopolitical risks, leading to a relief rally in risk-on assets.
Following the announcement, Bitcoin experienced an approximate 3.6% increase, briefly exceeding $97,000. This illustrates the sensitivity of capital flows to signals of macroeconomic easing. Although fundamental differences between the two countries remain, the current period of policy de-escalation may provide a short-term boost in liquidity for digital assets, gold, and technology stocks.
Powell Throws : “Now Is Not the Time to Cut Rates”
On May 8, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive time. While this decision was widely anticipated, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more cautious stance during the press conference:
- “Now is not the time for us to lead with a rate cut.”
- “The cost of waiting is relatively low.”
- “Whether we cut this year depends on how things develop.”
The Federal Reserve is currently facing a “dual bind”: on the one hand, disinflation has come to a standstill, with both PCE and CPI exceeding the 2% target. On the other hand, the central bank’s financial situation is worsening. A rate reduction of 25–30 bps could decrease annual income by $20 billion, further diminishing remittances to the Treasury and raising concerns about the Fed’s policy independence.
Consequently, despite market expectations of three rate cuts in 2025, the Federal Reserve is more likely to adopt a “data-driven, delayed transition” approach.
Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics: Macroeconomic Data to Dictate Direction
Even with BTC’s rebound to around $99,000 due to geopolitical and monetary optimism, the options market does not indicate a strong directional bias. Deribit data reveals only a modest increase in implied volatility for June and July calls, while 25d risk reversals remain neutral to slightly bearish, and skew curves are relatively flat. Notably, significant Gamma exposures are concentrated around the $95,000–$100,000 range, suggesting that BTC is currently stuck in a “high-volatility, low-conviction” zone awaiting macroeconomic catalysts.
Should CPI and jobs data for May–June remain strong, the Federal Reserve may temper rate cut expectations, potentially causing a BTC pullback. Conversely, if inflation eases and unemployment rises, Powell may shift to a more dovish position, providing a green light for BTC to break out of its volatility compression range and continue its bullish trend.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
About HTX Research
HTX Research functions as the dedicated research division of HTX Group, focusing on conducting thorough analyses, generating detailed reports, and offering expert assessments across a wide array of subjects, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
Photo – –
Logo –