Ecuador’s presidential election will head to a runoff in April between incumbent Daniel Noboa and Luisa González.
Neither candidate secured an outright victory in Sunday’s first round, but both significantly outpaced the other fourteen contenders, each achieving approximately 44% of the vote, according to Monday’s results.
The April 13th runoff mirrors the October 2023 snap election that granted Noboa a 16-month term.
Noboa and González now compete for a full four-year term, promising voters a reduction in the widespread criminal activity that has plagued the nation for the past four years.
This surge in violence is linked to the cocaine trade originating in neighboring Colombia and Peru. The high number of crime victims has heavily influenced voter decisions, determining whether a third president in four years can revitalize Ecuador or if Noboa deserves another term.
Noboa, inheritor of a banana-trade fortune, and González, a protégé of Ecuador’s most influential 21st-century president, emerged as clear frontrunners before the election.
With 92.1% of ballots counted, the National Electoral Council reported Noboa received 4.22 million votes (44.31%), while González received 4.17 million (43.83%). The remaining fourteen candidates trailed considerably.
Ecuador’s mandatory voting system saw over 83% of the approximately 13.7 million eligible voters participate.
Under Noboa’s presidency, the homicide rate decreased from 46.18 per 100,000 in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 last year. However, this remains significantly higher than the 2019 rate of 6.85 per 100,000, and crimes like kidnapping and extortion have soared, causing widespread fear.
“This president is disastrous,” stated Marta Barres, 35, voting with her three children. “Can he change things in four more years? No. He hasn’t done anything.”
Barres, who pays a monthly gang extortion fee of $25, supports González, believing she can improve security and the economy.
Noboa’s October 2023 victory over González in the snap election runoff followed President Guillermo Lasso’s dissolution of the National Assembly. Both Noboa and González, mentored by former President Rafael Correa, had limited prior legislative experience before their presidential bids.
To win outright, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the nearest opponent.
Over 100,000 police and military personnel were deployed nationwide for election security. At least 50 officers accompanied Noboa, his wife, and their two-year-old son to his polling station.
Noboa, 37, established an event planning business at 18 before joining Noboa Corp., holding management roles in shipping, logistics, and commerce. His political career began in 2021 with his election to the National Assembly.
Some of Noboa’s strong-arm crime-fighting tactics have drawn criticism domestically and internationally for potentially exceeding legal and governance norms.
These include the January 2024 declaration of a state of internal armed conflict to deploy the military against organized crime, and last year’s raid in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas.
However, his aggressive approach also garners support.
“Noboa is the only one hitting organized crime hard,” said retiree German Rizzo, voting for Noboa’s reelection outside a polling station in Samborondón.
González, 47, served in various government roles under Correa (2007-2017), whose administration, characterized by expansive social policies, became increasingly authoritarian. Correa was later sentenced in absentia on corruption charges.
González served as a lawmaker until May 2023, when Lasso dissolved the Assembly. She was largely unknown until Correa’s party nominated her for the snap election.
Quito’s University of the Americas professor Maria Cristina Bayas called Sunday’s result a triumph for Correa’s party, exceeding pre-election poll predictions.
Esteban Ron, dean at the International University SEK, suggested Noboa needs to revamp his campaign, potentially having reached his peak support due to his administration’s shortcomings.
Waiting to vote in Guayaquil, architecture student Keila Torres remained undecided, believing no candidate can effectively combat crime due to deep-seated corruption.
“If I could, I wouldn’t be here,” said Torres, a victim of three bus robberies and a near-carjacking. “Things are not going to change.”