Pope Francis’ focus on reaching out to marginalized communities globally is expected to lead to a historically diverse group of cardinals gathering to elect the next pope.
Mary FioRito, a papal election expert and Catholic Association senior fellow, suggests this could result in a pope with significantly different priorities than the current one.
Francis has appointed approximately 80% of the 135 cardinals who will participate in the upcoming papal conclave.
Consequently, the conclave will likely feature a larger representation from regions like Africa and Asia, rather than being primarily composed of European or Western cardinals.
“This will be the most diverse conclave in the history of the church,” FioRito stated.
However, this increased diversity might lead to a shift away from some of Francis’ key focuses, such as his emphasis on synodality, which involves global gatherings of small groups to discuss theological and practical church matters.
FioRito believes the upcoming conclave, likely beginning May 5, will determine whether the next pope continues Francis’ legacy or prioritizes issues like persecution and poverty, prevalent in countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, and India.
In Nigeria, where Christians make up about half the population, a religious freedom watchdog reported that 3,100 Christians were killed and 2,830 kidnapped in 2024 alone.
FioRito predicts that African cardinals, now a substantial voting bloc, will significantly influence the selection of the next pope.
She explained that the African church’s priorities are shaped by rapid growth and intense persecution.
“We’re concerned about things like climate change, and they’re concerned about not being locked in a church and set on fire,” she said. “They’re not sitting around at these tables for 10 discussing great ideas. They just want to make sure their kid gets to school without getting shot and they can pay their rent this month.”
This will lead to a desire for a pope who respects the African church as an equal and opposes ideological colonization from the West regarding issues like climate change, abortion, and gender ideology.
“The cardinals in Africa are very sensitive to this kind of ideological colonization where they’re not being colonized in the traditional way, but the ideas of the West are coming in and attempting to change African culture with Western ideas without listening to the people first,” she said.
FioRito suggests Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, 71, is a potential candidate who is young enough to be chosen and is seen as a “John Paul II-type personality,” respected by both Pope Francis’ supporters and African bishops.
Another potential “bridge” candidate, according to FioRito, is American-born Cardinal Robert Prevost, president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. However, she notes that Prevost might be less likely if cardinals “don’t want to see so much of the world’s power concentrated in the United States.”
FioRito also predicts that the tension between modernity and tradition, which has caused significant divisions in the West, will be a factor.
She notes a growing trend among young people in the West to embrace more traditional forms of worship, such as the traditional Latin Mass, amid a general decline in faith.
“That’s where the 20-somethings are going to Mass,” she said. “In a world where there’s so much crassness and vulgarity, you have something here that’s timeless and just kind of transports you to another world.”
Despite this, she believes the traditional Latin Mass issue is a “niche liturgical issue that I don’t think is going to have much impact.”
FioRito emphasizes that selecting the next pope is less about specific issues or policies and more about the individual man.
“I wouldn’t phrase it in terms of issues, as if we’re talking about the economy or migration. We’re looking at individual men and asking ourselves, who can serve the church best at this moment and who is the person best equipped to take on this international role?” she said.
“The holy father’s role is to be a center of unity for the church in preaching the message and the gospel,” FioRito went on. “So, it’s looking at individual people, their strengths, their weaknesses, their backgrounds, what limitations they might have. And then really, in a very prayerful way, asking, what does the church need now in a new pope?”
“My sense of it,” she went on, “I think the cardinals need to be looking at the church today globally and not just in their own backyards, but globally and saying, ‘Who is the man who can best take the church forward into this new era?'”