Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month, raising concerns about a potential regional conflict between Israel and Iran.
While Israel is preparing to face its primary adversary, Iran, a potentially more dangerous threat looms on its northern border—Hezbollah.
“The big X factor here is Hezbollah,” Jonathan Conricus, former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and current senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Digital. “Hezbollah possesses significant military capabilities.”
“They have nation-state capabilities,” he added.
Hezbollah has received substantial support from Iran for years, including weaponry, technological expertise, and approximately $700 million annually, according to .
However, it is not only their strategic capabilities that make Hezbollah a formidable threat; it is their proximity to Israel, explained Conricus.
Based along Israel’s northern border in Lebanon, Hezbollah has posed a significant security challenge for Israel since its founding in 1982 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which was triggered by border disputes with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
Israel now finds itself surrounded by nearly two dozen terrorist organizations, many of which are backed by Iran in what has been labeled Tehran’s “Ring of Fire.”
In response to these growing threats, Jerusalem developed a defense system called the Iron Dome, operational since 2011, which has proven effective in intercepting a majority of projectiles aimed at Israel. However, the recent war in Gaza highlighted the Iron Dome’s vulnerability, causing rising anxiety.
Security experts believe that Tehran will likely employ a multi-pronged approach in its next attack on Israel, utilizing proxy forces like Hezbollah to overwhelm Israeli, U.S., and U.K. defenses—a strategy that Conricus believes could be successful.
“Hezbollah has significant rocket and missile capabilities that can create a temporary significant challenge for Israeli air defenses, even with the assistance of allied countries that will come to Israel’s assistance,” the 24-year IDF veteran said.
Conricus stated that despite United Nations Security Council resolutions prohibiting the accumulation of weapons in Lebanon by non-governmental groups, Hezbollah has managed to “stockpile” a considerable arsenal.
The former IDF spokesperson believes that Hezbollah has only revealed a quarter of its strike capabilities so far, and Jerusalem has made it clear that any attack by the terrorist group will be met with a forceful response, setting the stage for a potentially brutal confrontation.
“Israel has signaled that this isn’t going to be the Second Lebanon War. This is going to be a much more fierce and powerful response from Israel, with less constraints and with less limitations because of what is at stake for Israel,” Conricus said, referring to the in which 120 IDF soldiers and 40 Israeli civilians were killed, alongside the deaths of over 1,100 Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah combatants.
Israel, the U.S., and the U.K. have been actively strengthening their defensive and offensive capabilities, and security experts continue to speculate about the timing and manner of Iran’s next attack on Jerusalem, which was threatened on Monday.
Following an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, convened at the request of Iranian and Palestinian officials, acting Iranian Foreign Minister Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani said Tehran would respond to the killing of Haniyeh at the “right time” and in the “appropriate” manner, .
While U.S. officials reportedly hoped the OIC would help de-escalate tensions, the Iranian official informed the bloc’s members that “it is expected” that they would support Tehran.
The OIC subsequently issued a statement holding Israel “fully responsible” for the “heinous attack”—which Jerusalem has not claimed responsibility for—but it refrained from explicitly endorsing Iranian military action.
Iran, which launched an attack on Israel in April with approximately 300 missiles and drones, is anticipated to unleash an assault two to three times larger in its next offensive, Conricus estimated.
“The challenge here for Iran, and this might be the [reason for the] delay, is that they’re in a bit of uncharted territory having to fight for themselves,” Conricus said. “They are being careful and trying to calculate what the Israeli response to the Iranian attack will be, and what they will be putting on the line.”
Conricus described Iran’s Monday threats against Israel as “uncharacteristic” but noted the , not only in Tehran, but in a complex heavily monitored by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, added “insult to injury.”
Iran has positioned itself for a confrontation with Israel and its Western allies, where it cannot solely rely on proxy fighters like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or the Houthis to achieve its strategic goals.
“They are in uncharted territory. They have to really fight,” Conricus said. “And the Iranians are not used to fighting for themselves.”