EXCLUSIVE: A new report from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) contends that President Trump’s potential second term offers a unique opportunity to counteract the Biden administration’s perceived failures and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The report, “Detecting and Halting an Iranian Weaponization Effort,” urges immediate, comprehensive action from the U.S. national security apparatus to address this critical threat.
According to Andrea Stricker, the report’s author, Trump’s earlier re-imposition of “maximum pressure” needs to be reinforced to prevent a rapid Iranian nuclear weapons program, leveraging Iran’s existing expertise and limited timeframe.
Stricker emphasizes the unacceptable nature of a nuclear-armed Iran, advocating for the full utilization of American power to prevent this outcome.
The report recommends re-establishing a credible military threat to deter Iran, including preparedness, alongside Israel, to target Iranian nuclear sites. A key recommendation is demonstrating the capability to eliminate any detected Iranian weaponization facilities.
Recent U.S. intelligence indicates a clandestine Iranian team is pursuing accelerated nuclear weapon development. This revelation follows Iran’s weakened regional position after October 7th.
The report criticizes the Biden administration for allowing Iran’s nuclear program to advance largely unchecked, resulting in Iran likely possessing the capability and knowledge to produce nuclear weapons. While some component functionality might be uncertain, a crude nuclear device could potentially be detonated within six months of initiation.
The report highlights the shrinking window for intervention, given Iran’s progress towards weapons-grade uranium enrichment and its advancing weaponization capabilities.
Trump’s signing of a memorandum re-instating the “maximum pressure” policy reflects a hardening stance on Iran. This executive order aims to maximize pressure on the Iranian regime to end its nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program, and cease support for terrorist groups.
Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and re-imposition of sanctions are cited. Subsequent attempts by the Biden administration to re-engage with Iran on nuclear issues proved unsuccessful, hampered by Iran’s internal politics and support for regional terrorist groups.
Stricker suggests the Iranian regime might be further incentivized to pursue nuclear weapons to maintain its power against a more assertive U.S. administration. Nuclear weapons could also enhance offensive and defensive capabilities, potentially deterring further Israeli strikes.
Beyond military threats, the report suggests enhanced intelligence gathering and disruption of Iranian weaponization efforts by the U.S. and Israel, including cultivating human intelligence sources among Iranian officials and scientists.
The report also calls for urgent mobilization of the International Atomic Energy Agency to strengthen inspections of Iranian weaponization activities.
A November 2024 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence indicated Iran possesses sufficient fissile material for over a dozen nuclear weapons if uranium enrichment continues.