Ukraine has tentatively accepted a proposal from the Trump administration, calling for a 30-day ceasefire contingent on Russia’s acceptance, marking a significant move.
However, even if the Trump administration succeeds in bringing Moscow to the table and ending the three-year conflict with a new treaty, the trustworthiness of the Kremlin chief remains questionable, especially given expert opinions that Russia faces little pressure to negotiate.
Putin’s Russia has a history of violating international agreements designed to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty from its former Soviet influence.
These violations include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for security assurances after leaving the Soviet Union in 1991, and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership, where Moscow and Kyiv pledged to respect each other’s borders. Both agreements were initially broken in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.
The 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements, aimed at stopping Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine, were never fully implemented and were further violated by Putin’s 2022 invasion.
Several world leaders and security experts, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have expressed skepticism about the possibility of a lasting peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, questioning Putin’s commitment to any international agreement without strong security guarantees from the West.
“The issue is that the Russians are inclined to pursue the zero-sum game, suggesting that to prevent them from attacking Ukraine again, they must feel that they are on the losing side in the war as they did at the end of the Cold War,” said Michael Ryan, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy and former acting assistant secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, to Digital.
Security officials who spoke with Digital emphasized that securing Ukraine’s future isn’t about “trusting” Putin but about creating a situation where any future violations would be more detrimental to Russia than any perceived benefits.
“Even if a deal is reached, Russia will continue its covert operations worldwide to increase its geopolitical influence,” Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, told Digital, adding that the former KGB operative can be expected to “continue election interference campaigns, cyber warfare, espionage and destabilization operations across the globe.”
“In Russia’s strategic military thinking, peace is nonexistent. They constantly seek confrontation.”
Ryan suggested that a Trump-brokered peace agreement should consider the lessons learned from previous failed agreements, such as the Treaty of Versailles after World War I, which some argue contributed to the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany.
“How to solve this conundrum? Just as we did after World War II, the reconstruction of Ukraine must include economic reconciliation with Russia,” Ryan said. “The Russians observed how we rebuilt Germany and Japan, the losing sides in World War II. They anticipated the same for Russia after the Cold War, but we did not deliver.”
“We can’t repeat that error if we desire lasting peace for Ukraine and wish to separate Russia from China,” he added, mentioning other how the West addresses this geopolitical challenge.
Negotiating with Putin presents numerous challenges, including disagreements over occupied territories, international recognition of these lands, international aid for Ukraine, confiscation of frozen Russian assets, Zelenskyy’s domestic position, the return of prisoners of war, and the return of abducted Ukrainian children, according to Peter Rough, senior fellow and director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute.
“Putin has officially annexed four Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea. However, Moscow is yet to fully conquer any of these four,” Rough told Digital while in Ukraine. “I doubt that Ukraine will withdraw from the areas they control, having to defend those regions.
“I also doubt that the West will offer de jure recognition to the areas Moscow controls,” he added. “So, Putin would have to swallow all of that in a peace deal.”
Each issue is a major negotiation challenge, and while Ukraine may be outlining potential concessions to secure a U.S.-brokered deal, Putin is unlikely to reciprocate, according to Koffler, who briefed NATO years before the 2022 invasion about Putin’s plans.
“Putin is unlikely to make any concessions as he believes he is in a strong position,” Koffler told Digital. “The difference in combat potential greatly favors Russia over Ukraine, which is undermanned and outgunned because Putin transitioned the Russian military and economy on a wartime footing seven years prior to the invasion of Ukraine.”
“Putin believes he has prepared Russia to fight till the last Ukrainian and till the last missile in NATO’s arsenal,” she added, echoing a January warning issued by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said Russia’s defense industry output over a three-month period equates to what an entire year.
“Putin is highly unlikely to agree to a ceasefire because he doesn’t want to give a strategic pause to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO to re-arm,” Koffler said. “He doesn’t trust Washington. He doesn’t trust President Trump any more than we trust Putin.
“He trusts Trump even less than Biden because he could read Biden and predict his behavior. He cannot read Trump because Trump is unpredictable.”
Experts argue that numerous variables during negotiations will determine whether Putin can be adequately held accountable or “trusted” regarding future agreements.
Ultimately, Koffler stated that Putin will not leave eastern Ukraine.
“Ukraine has always been a red line for Putin regarding geopolitical control, whether it’s Russia or the West. He will continue to enforce this red line,” she said. “The only way to ensure that Putin doesn’t invade another country is to make NATO strong again, beef up force posture, increase defense spending, secure its command-and-control networks and develop actual deterrence and counter-strategy that addresses every prong of Putin’s strategy.”
“`