The Iran-backed Lebanese militant organization, Hezbollah, is reportedly reconstituting its military capabilities along Israel’s northern frontier. This rearmament effort has prompted warnings from experts about the potential for a renewed conflict between the two adversaries. These developments emerge approximately one year after the U.S. facilitated a ceasefire agreement between the parties.
On Wednesday, IDF spokesman Nadav Shoshani asserted that Hezbollah had engaged “in a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement.” Shoshani subsequently released a video purportedly demonstrating the rearming, claiming the group was “operating to reestablish its assets in the village of Beit Lif.”
Critics allege that the U.N. peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, is not upholding its mandate to disarm the militant group, and the Lebanese Armed Forces are proceeding too slowly. This situation, they argue, has necessitated ongoing Israeli actions against the militants. The IDF has been conducting nearly daily strikes targeting the group’s infrastructure and operatives within Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi, a leading Israeli security expert on Hezbollah from the Israel Alma Research and Education Center, informed Digital that Hezbollah currently “does not have the capability to carry out an October invasion.” She clarified, “They had it prior to Oct. 7, 2023. They can send in a few terrorists. I want to believe it will take a few years to get those capabilities back.”
Last year, Digital exclusively reported on plans to invade northern Israel and conduct a scorched-earth campaign against the Jewish state.
Hezbollah launched missile attacks against Israel one day after the Iran-supported Hamas group invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the massacre of over 1,200 people.
Zehavi stated, “Both the IDF and Hezbollah are very active. The IDF is very active to stop the rehabilitation of Hezbollah and Hezbollah is very active in rebuilding. Hezbollah learned lessons. It has been more problematic to smuggle weapons to Lebanon from Syria. It is happening. But the .”
She observed that the “Syrian regime is willing to fight Hezbollah to fight weapons smuggling. Hezbollah is relying more on manufacturing rockets.”
Zehavi, a resident of northern Israel, indicated that “almost half of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah are south of the Litani river. We see a lot of investment from Hezbollah in drones, short-range rockets, mortars and anti-tank missiles.”
On Tuesday, prosecutors initiated a trial against an alleged Hezbollah member accused of operating “an extensive drone program for some time.”
The German Federal Prosecutor’s Office reported that the suspected Hezbollah operative, Fadel Z, joined Hezbollah over 10 years ago and functioned as a “foreign operator” for the group’s drone program in 2022 across Spain and Germany.
Zehavi noted that Hezbollah suffered a leadership defeat following the Mossad pager attack targeting its commanders. However, she added, “Iran immediately provided oxygen to Hezbollah for treatment to help revive Hezbollah.”
She outlined Israel’s principal defense strategy against Hezbollah. Firstly, the IDF maintains positions in Syria and Lebanon. “We cannot have civilians on the front line,” she explained. “The IDF is on top of hills in Israel and Lebanon and can see everything and can respond quickly to terrorist activities. This means when an Israeli woman opens her window and used to see a Hezbollah flag, she now sees an Israeli flag. This gives her a sense of security. This was not present before Oct. 7.”
She estimates Hezbollah possesses 50,000 active members and 50,000 reservists, adding, “We killed a few thousand terrorists.”
The IDF achieved significant progress in dismantling Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. “We degraded 80%” of the rockets, Zehavi confirmed, highlighting the elimination of substantial numbers of Hezbollah’s long-range and highly accurate missiles.
Edy Cohen, a Lebanese-born Israeli scholar specializing in Hezbollah, remarked, “There is no lack of arms for Hezbollah in Beirut and Lebanon. Lately, we saw many reports that Hezbollah received and Iran is trying to send arms by civilian Iranian airplanes.”
He stated that Hezbollah is under immense pressure, with Israel eliminating operatives every week. Cohen noted that the Shiite community in Lebanon desires Hezbollah to retaliate against Israel, adding, “For the Shiite community Hezbollah is the state.”
Cohen mentioned that the IDF is gathering intelligence on Hezbollah’s arsenal and almost daily striking its leaders and operatives.
He warned that because “Hezbollah said it will not disarm its militia … the big war will come.”
In early November, Digital reported that Thomas Barrack, who served as Trump’s U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and also as envoy to Syria, characterized Lebanon as a “failed state” due to its “paralyzed government.”
He further noted that Hezbollah commands 40,000 fighters and between 15,000 and 20,000 rockets and missiles, pointing out that the militant group pays its members $2,200 monthly, while Lebanese Armed Forces soldiers earn $275 a month and possess inferior equipment.