While NATO has been on alert since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over three years ago, a recent surge in airspace violations is fueling concerns among security experts. They now fear that warnings of a potential war with Russia are becoming a real possibility.

President stated on Thursday that the U.S. could be drawn into “World War III” due to Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He also expressed disappointment with Vladimir Putin’s continued military campaign.

The following day, Russia directly violated Estonian airspace by sending three fighter jets over Tallinn, prompting a response from another NATO member for the second time in just two weeks.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene told Digital, “Russia is testing NATO again—dozens of drones in Poland last week, drones in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and now fighter jets in Estonian skies. These are deliberate provocations.” She added, “They are deliberate tests—tests of our readiness, our resolve, and of the limits of our deterrence.”

Sakaliene described the Friday violation as the latest instance in “an escalating pattern of pressure by Russia.”

“For Estonia, for Poland, for Lithuania, for all of NATO’s eastern flank, this is a direct threat—not just to territorial integrity, but to citizen safety,” she emphasized.

The Lithuanian defense minister cautioned that NATO’s primary defense, besides its military preparedness, is maintaining a united front to deter direct Russian action against a member state, which could trigger a global war.

“Our biggest risk currently is miscalculation by Russia,” Sakaliene explained. “Does Russia believe that NATO will not allow violations of its territory? Does Russia believe that Europe is going to strike back together with [the] United States?”

“That’s now the last line of defense between if and when [war with Russia happens],” she concluded.

Concerns about a direct conflict with Russia intensified earlier this month after at least 19 Russian drones flew over Polish airspace, requiring a multinational response. NATO intervened for the first time since the war began, downing up to four drones that posed a threat.

While Trump suggested the drone incursion might have been accidental, Poland insisted it was a “deliberate” and “planned provocation.”

Drone strikes have been a key tactic in Russia’s operation against , peaking in July with approximately 6,297 long-range drones launched across the country.

That number decreased to fired in August. However, most of these UAVs were launched between August 16th and 31st, with roughly 3,001 drones deployed starting the day after Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska on August 15th.

An , located less than 30 miles from Hungary and Slovakia (both NATO members), was also struck by “several” cruise missiles in late August.

“The scope of air attacks from Russia to Ukraine is really rising. They are using more drones, more rockets, and they are still expected to rise,” Sakaliene stated.

“We have to admit and adapt to this new reality. High intensity war by Russia against Ukraine is ongoing,” the defense minister added. “That means that more and more UAVs are going to wander off into the territories of the bordering countries, and even further.”

Russia has increasingly adopted gray-zone tactics, which involve actions below the threshold of open warfare. These tactics serve to test NATO’s resolve and response capabilities.

Over the past month, Poland has experienced three separate airspace incidents, including UAVs carrying explosives entering its airspace from both Ukraine and Belarus.

Just three days after the drone swarm targeted Polish air defenses, a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace, prompting a response from a French fighter jet and a Polish helicopter under NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry – a defensive measure launched the day before.

These events followed sounding the alarm after two separate incidents involving Russian Gerber drones violating its borders, one of which was carrying explosives.

However, these tactics are not the only concerning behaviors from Moscow that security experts have highlighted recently.

Earlier this month, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, D.C., noted an op-ed by former Russian president and current Security Council chair on September 8 in the state-sponsored news outlet TASS. The op-ed mirrored rhetoric used by the Kremlin before its invasion of Ukraine.

In his article, Medvedev accused Finland of “Russophobia” and asserted that “the thirst for profit at the expense of Russia was installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.”

He further claimed that Helsinki has attempted to erase the “historical and cultural identity” of ethnic Russians and joined NATO under the “guise” of defense, while secretly preparing for war against Russia, according to the ISW.

Medvedev’s comments were . Multiple Kremlin officials, including Putin, have stated that “there will be problems” after Finland joined NATO, claiming that the alliance will use Finland as a “springboard” to attack Russia.

“Russia has been steadily setting conditions to attack NATO over the past several years: Moscow is standing up new divisions and optimizing its command and control headquarters on NATO’s eastern flank,” George Barros, Senior Russia Analyst with ISW, told Digital. “The Kremlin information warfare apparatus is fabricating claims and justifications for why Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland are not real countries.”

“These are the prerequisite preparations for future war that Moscow is preparing,” he warned.

Sakaliene echoed these concerns and also highlighted Russia’s use of “soft power,” often through social media and traditional media, to manipulate public opinion, which she described as “alarmingly effective.”

“We see a picture of a very aggressive country which is investing a disproportionate amount of its funds into their military capacity,” the defense minister stated. “Despite heavy losses every week, every month, they are moving forward in Ukraine, and at the same time, they are expanding their capabilities.”

“It raises considerable doubts if all that mass of military power is being accumulated only for Ukraine,” Sakaliene concluded.