(AsiaGameHub) –   Prediction platform Polymarket says its products use the wisdom of the crowd to value future outcomes. However, most users are met with an unfortunate reality. New research from analyst Andrey Sergeenkov shows that most Polymarket traders lose money. Out of roughly 2.5 million participants, only 15.9% turned a profit. The remaining 84.1% are operating at a loss.

The Data Uncovers Clear Notable Patterns

The earnings gap grows wider at higher profit levels. Only about 2% of users earned a total of more than $1,000. Traders who surpassed the $10,000 mark make up less than one percent of all users, while just about 840 users earned six-figure sums. For a platform often tied to viral success stories, the full picture looks far more like traditional speculative markets, where a small minority claims almost all of the potential gains.

According to the study, timing is one of the most critical influencing factors. Polymarket’s user base grew dramatically around the 2024 U.S. election cycle, drawing in a wave of newcomers. Many of these new users had little experience with prediction markets, or even general trading at all. Sergeenkov’s study found that overall trading performance generally declines as the number of participants increases.

Consistency is another key challenge. While some users post strong monthly returns, very few can maintain a winning streak long-term. Just over 1% of traders earn more than $1,000 per month. People who consistently make more than $5,000 are even rarer, and keeping that level of profit across consecutive months is nearly impossible. Data shows that more than half of profitable traders hit their profit peak in a single month, and most leave the platform not long after.

Few Successful Users Remain Active Long-Term

According to the study, real outcomes rarely match Polymarket’s public reputation. Social media is full of claims of easy profits and stories of traders walking away with large sums in short time frames. While these cases are real, they are statistically uncommon. Only a tiny percentage of users who averaged more than $5,000 per month stayed active for more than one year. The typical pattern is short bursts of activity rather than steady, consistent income.

The structure of prediction markets explains these results. Market prices reflect crowd sentiment, meaning individual traders often bet against the collective view of all participants. Gaining a competitive edge in this setting can be challenging, especially in high-profile markets where information is widely available to everyone. Meanwhile, the constant flow of new users can further widen the gap between experienced traders and new users.

Most new traders end up losing money. It would be useful if influencers promoting the platform at the very least taught their audience core basics: bankroll management, how prediction markets work, and why betting on impulse is a quick way to lose all your funds.

Andrey Sergeenkov

Concerns about fairness have also grown more prominent. The platform has faced scrutiny over suspected insider trading, especially in political prediction markets. To ease these concerns, Polymarket has tightened its rules, banning trades based on non-public or improperly obtained information and restricting participation for individuals who could impact event outcomes.