DUBAI, UAE, Jan. 30, 2026 — , the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has published its latest , which examines recent market pressure on digital assets as investors reevaluate U.S. monetary policy expectations.
Key findings include:
- Widespread sell-off in the crypto market alongside global risk assets
- Sudden increase in short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether
- Minimal movement in longer-term volatility despite significant price drops
- Low derivatives market participation and quiet trading volumes
The report indicates that cryptocurrencies have been caught up in a broader global market sell-off, fueled by a quick revaluation of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and renewed U.S. dollar strength. This shift wiped out approximately 4.7% of total crypto market capitalization within 24 hours, with losses focused on major tokens.
Bitcoin dropped to around $81,000, putting it over 30% below its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,100, while Ether even fell below $2,700—well under the $3,000 psychological threshold. Year-to-date, Bitcoin and Ether have declined by more than 5% and 8% respectively.
That sell-off resulted in a sharp jump in short-term options implied volatility. One-week at-the-money implied volatility reached about 46% for Bitcoin and roughly 58% for Ether. However, longer-term volatility did not increase as drastically, suggesting traders are mainly factoring in higher near-term uncertainty rather than a long-lasting period of market strain.
Derivatives market engagement remains low. Open interest in perpetual futures contracts hasn’t dropped significantly alongside spot prices and stays well below levels seen before the October 2025 liquidation event. Daily trading volumes for perpetual contracts are also much lower than those in the first three quarters of 2025, pointing to ongoing caution among market participants.
“Cryptocurrencies have been pulled into the global asset sell-off as markets rapidly adjust their Fed policy expectations amid a presumably less-dovish Fed Chair,” stated Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Learn. “With U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs seeing three consecutive months of net outflows, traders will be closely watching the $80,000 mark. A persistent drop below this psychologically key level could push Bitcoin’s decline into the mid-$70,000 range, returning to levels not seen since after Liberation Day.”
The report also points out that recent Federal Open Market Committee communications had minimal effect on longer-term volatility expectations. Even with a slightly hawkish tone and focus on a wait-and-see approach, implied volatility across longer tenors for both Bitcoin and Ether has continued to decline since hitting a peak in late 2025.
Overall, the analysis suggests that while short-term volatility has increased, the lack of a sustained rise in longer-dated volatility and trading activity indicates a market environment characterized by limited participation and cautious positioning. The full is available for download.
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About Bybit
Bybit is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Established in 2018, Bybit is reshaping openness in the decentralized space by building a simpler, open, and equitable ecosystem for all. With a strong emphasis on Web3, Bybit forms strategic partnerships with top blockchain protocols to deliver robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Recognized for its secure custody solutions, diverse marketplaces, user-friendly interface, and cutting-edge blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock Web3’s full potential. Discover the future of decentralized finance at .
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