(SeaPRwire) –   By: Gavin Thorne

The Brazilian president didn’t mince words. He called Trump’s tariff strategy a “strategic mistake.” That’s not just diplomatic theater. It’s a cold, hard assessment of a trade war that’s backfiring on the people who started it. Lula’s op-ed in the Washington Post wasn’t a plea. It was a warning shot.

Let’s cut through the noise. The US slapped an extra 12.5% tariff on Brazilian goods last week. That’s on top of an existing 25% surcharge. Some products now face a 37.5% tax just to enter the American market. Global Trade Alert data shows Brazil and Türkiye are now tied as the second-most tariffed nations by the US. Only China gets hit harder. That’s a club nobody wants to be in.

Lula said he was “taken aback” when Trump first floated 50% tariffs last year. He sees it as political theater. The numbers back him up. Brazilian exports to the US have already dropped to their lowest level since 1997. Bilateral trade is down 12.8% compared to the same period last year. That’s not a negotiation. That’s a hemorrhage.

The irony is thick. The US actually runs a trade surplus with Brazil. So these tariffs aren’t protecting American jobs. They’re making American industries pay more for raw materials. Food, footwear, textiles, furniture, auto parts. All of it gets more expensive for US consumers. Lula spelled it out plainly. “Besides being unfair, the new tariffs are a strategic mistake: They will harm the US economy and the US partnership with Brazil.”

Now watch the supply chain ripple effects. Brazilian companies aren’t just going to eat the cost. They’re already shopping for new suppliers. Lula warned that firms will “replace their US suppliers with partners elsewhere.” That’s not a threat. It’s a business reality. When you jack up the price of doing business, your partners find cheaper alternatives. It’s Economics 101.

The geopolitical subtext here is brutal. Lula’s message was clear: “Latin America and the Caribbean need neither aircraft carriers patrolling their waters nor punitive tariffs.” That’s a direct rebuke of US power projection. And it’s not just rhetoric. On Saturday, Brazil denied visas to two US State Department officials who wanted to discuss Brazil’s voting system ahead of the October election. Lula said, “Brazil’s destiny is for Brazilians alone to determine – without foreign interference or subservience.”

This is where the story gets darker. The October election pits Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, was sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Trump has demanded Brazil drop the case, calling it a “witch hunt.” So the tariffs aren’t just about trade. They’re leverage in a political feud.

Here’s the bottom line. Trump’s tariff strategy is treating a trading partner like an enemy. But the data shows it’s hurting the US more than Brazil. Supply chains are relocating. Consumer prices are rising. And the political fallout is poisoning a relationship that used to be stable. Lula’s op-ed wasn’t a complaint. It was a diagnosis. And the prognosis is clear: this was a strategic mistake that will echo for years.
Author bio: Gavin Thorne, an investigative journalist tracking special interests and legislative affairs based in Washington, D.C.