S&P Global: Linear Energy Transition Era Has Ended as AI Demand and Geopolitics Reshape Markets

6b2f150521a5d40423873e3f3a2c4109 2 S&P Global: Era of Linear Energy Transition Has Ended as AI Demand and Geopolitics Reshape Markets
  • A new journal released prior to the 44th Annual CERAWeek investigates the conflicting pressures influencing energy markets and the effects of persistent geopolitical instability.
  • The analysis is released during the continuing Middle East conflict, a period of historic significance for global energy markets.

(SeaPRwire) –   NEW YORK, March 20, 2026 — S&P Global has published new research analyzing the transformation of the global energy landscape by geopolitical factors and the competing demands of affordability, reliability, competitiveness, and decarbonization. This publication was finalized against the backdrop of the developing war in the Middle East, which has caused extraordinary volatility in energy markets.

S&P Global Logo (PRNewsfoto/S&P Global)

The report, Look Forward: Energy Futures, consolidates top-tier analysis from various S&P Global divisions to assist leaders in managing the intricate, multi-faceted forces redefining energy markets.

Next week in Houston, industry specialists, officials, policymakers, and leaders from the technology, finance, and industrial sectors will assemble at the 44th edition of CERAWeek by S&P Global to deliberate on these topics.

“CERAWeek occurs at a critical juncture, with the global energy system facing continuous challenges during a time of historic geopolitical uncertainty,” stated Dave Ernsberger, President, S&P Global Energy. “The swift expansion of AI and its substantial energy needs are fueling an unparalleled integration of the technology and energy industries, creating a pressing demand for dependable and sustainable energy sources. In this fast-changing global environment, integrating our profound sector knowledge, accurate data, and practical market insights for our clients is increasingly vital.”

Principal insights from the research include:

  • The Multidimensional Energy Future: As it moves into the AI era, the global energy system is exploring new territories. S&P Global Energy projections indicate worldwide data center power consumption may increase by 12%-16% each year from 2025 to 2030. The energy sector has experienced considerable changes over the past year, characterized by accelerating power demand, evolving global energy and climate policies, and energy firms reevaluating their investment and portfolio approaches.
  • Electricity Affordability at a Crossroads: The growth in electricity demand is exceeding expectations, with AI and data centers becoming major contributors. This trend has led to supply limitations, higher consumer prices, and regulatory actions that pose significant risks to both public and private organizations within the power sector.
  • Plugged In and Politicized: Copper in a Fractured World: S&P Global forecasts a roughly 50% increase in global copper demand, reaching about 42 million metric tons by 2040, up from 28.4 million mt in 2025. Minerals and materials essential for electrification, digital infrastructure, and defense have evolved into strategic assets for economic and national security. Nations are implementing export restrictions, strategic funding, and international alliances to ensure supply and enhance resilience.

“The time of considering the energy transition as a straightforward journey to decarbonization is over,” commented Atul Arya, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist, S&P Global Energy. “It has been replaced by a more urgent priority: constructing energy systems that can support economic growth in a world growing more unpredictable. This change has profound implications for corporate investment strategies, government regulation, and market operations.”

Additional chapters in the journal examine:

  • Has the Electrotech Age Arrived?
  • Europe’s Policy Reset
  • Upstream is Back…but Different
  • Aligning the Math of Carbon Accounting
  • Bridging the Gap: Advancing African Energy Infrastructure Projects
  • The Rise and Fall of Sustainable Chemicals: What would make it different this time?
  • Why Climate Adaptation is Key to US Energy Expansion

Look Forward: Energy Futures represents the most recent installment in the S&P Global Look Forward research series, which comprises special reports providing comprehensive analysis of key themes, trends, and issues impacting the global economy.

The S&P Global Look Forward Council assembles top specialists from throughout the company to produce research that clarifies long-term trends and significant market transformations. By addressing sectors ranging from capital and commodity markets to energy and sustainability, the council offers the forward-thinking insights S&P Global clients require to manage uncertainty and make well-informed, confident choices.

To view the complete Look Forward: Energy Futures journal online, go to: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/energy-futures

For additional information regarding CERAWeek, visit: www.ceraweek.com

Media Contacts:

Orla O’Brien
S&P Global
+1 857 407 8559
orla.obrien@spglobal.com

Isabel Allanwood
S&P Global
+ 44 7483 368 605
isabel.allanwood@spglobal.com

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides businesses, governments, and individuals with reliable data, expertise, and technology to make confident decisions. Through world-class benchmarks, data, and insights, we are Advancing Essential Intelligence that customers depend on to plan with assurance, act decisively, and achieve economic success in a dynamic global environment.

Our services range from assisting clients in evaluating new investments across capital and commodities markets to guiding them through energy expansion, the acceleration of artificial intelligence, and the development of public and private markets. We empower the world’s premier organizations to discover opportunities, address challenges, and prepare for the future – starting now. Discover more at www.spglobal.com.

SOURCE S&P Global

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