(SeaPRwire) –   By: Julian Holbrooke

The US Treasury’s 60-day oil waiver for Iran isn’t a sign of lasting peace. It’s a tactical gambit. I’ve written about US-Iran relations for major European dailies for years, and this move fits a pattern. The timing—immediately after the first round of talks in Switzerland—tells you this is about keeping negotiations alive, not changing policy. This isn’t a gift to Iran. It’s a carrot to push Tehran to make concessions.

Let’s start with the official facts. The US issued General License X. This license permits Iran to produce, deliver, and sell its crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products for 60 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the announcement on X Monday. The release notes that talks between Washington and Tehran are continuing after the weekend’s first round in Switzerland. Now the subtext: This waiver is a goodwill gesture, but it’s conditional. The US wants Tehran to address its concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities. Without progress in those areas, the waiver will expire—and sanctions could get worse.

The official statement mentions “limited production and sales,” but there are no specifics. How much oil can Iran sell? What’s the cap on petrochemical exports? We don’t have answers yet. But industry contacts I spoke to this week say the limits are likely tight. They think Iran might be allowed to sell a few hundred thousand barrels per day—enough to generate some revenue but not enough to disrupt global markets. The subtext here is clear: The US holds all the leverage. They can revoke this waiver at any time. Tehran knows this, so this is a pressure tactic to get them to negotiate in good faith.

This 60-day waiver isn’t a permanent solution. It’s a temporary band-aid. The geopolitical pendulum here depends on Iran’s response. If Tehran makes meaningful concessions in the next round of talks, we might see more flexibility from the US. If not, expect the sanctions to snap back. This move doesn’t signal a shift in US policy. It’s just a way to keep the negotiation process from falling apart.

Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an overseas international relations analyst who contributes to major European daily newspapers.