While Israel continues its efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the Fordow site, located two hours from Tehran, remains intact.
Many military analysts believe that a two-ton precision bunker buster, developed and exclusively possessed by the U.S., is the sole method for eliminating the Fordow site. Some claim this facility could potentially produce a nuclear warhead in as little as two to three days.
Jonathan Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy for JINSA, discussed bunker-busters with Digital, explaining how Israel or the U.S. might use them to neutralize the nuclear threat at Fordow.
Ruhe stated that bunker busters are munitions designed to use gravity to “penetrate through any combination of earth, rock, and concrete before the bomb itself then explodes” underground. He explained that the explosion might either completely destroy the target or “collapse the structure” around it “without necessarily obliterating it.”
Bunker busters are available in various weight classes. Israel possesses 2,000-pound and 5,000-pound versions. The U.S. has the 30,000-pound GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP).
Developed during President George W. Bush’s administration, Ruhe said the MOP was “specifically designed” for targets like Fordow, where nuclear sites or command and control bunkers are hidden deep underground.
Ruhe mentioned that the number of munitions needed to target Fordow depends on the facility’s depth. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies reports Fordow’s facility as being between 60 and 90 meters (196 to 295 feet) below ground. However, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told The Financial Times last week that the facility extends 800 meters underground.
Ruhe suggested that Grossi, who has visited the Fordow facility, might have been “trying to convey the message, ‘military action is not the solution here.’”
The MOP is reported to have a penetration depth of 200 feet. Ruhe said that given Fordow’s underground distance and the difficulty of penetrating the rocky mountainside the site is dug into, the U.S. would likely employ a technique called burrowing. This involves a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber “dropping several MOPs in succession, one after the other.”
Fordow presents a unique target. Ruhe noted that pilots must account for the facility’s multiple, narrow exit tunnels and achieve the correct angle of impact to penetrate the ground.
Even though Israeli air dominance over Iran has negated the need for stealth air assets, Ruhe believes the stealth B-2 would be the only adequate tool for delivering the MOPs. Ruhe indicated that timing constraints make the use of B-52 bombers “impractical.”
Additionally, Ruhe explained that discussions about lending B-2 bombers to the Israeli Air Force are “a dangerous diversion.” He stated there is “0.0% chance” the U.S. would transfer this strategic capability, and training Israeli pilots to fly the B-2 would take several months.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, informed Digital that “destroying [Fordow] from the air is a task only the U.S. can accomplish.”
Given that Israel is “very tactically inventive” and possesses existing capabilities, Ruhe says that Israel could achieve its goals at Fordow without the MOP.
Ruhe not only presented the unlikely but not impossible scenario where Israel might “storm the site in a commando raid,” but he also suggested that Israel could use F-15s, escorted by F-35s, to deliver multiple 5,000-pound bunker busters over Fordow, utilizing the same burrowing tactic the U.S. would likely employ.
Such a strike, he admitted, would “achieve a more limited definition of success” than the MOP could.
The U.S. and Israel are likely to have differing goals in targeting Fordow, Ruhe said. “Americans tend to think of obliterating targets,” Ruhe noted, whereas Israel would “probably be content with delaying [Iran’s nuclear program] by approximately a year.”
Ruhe estimates that while the bunker busters may not completely destroy the facility, it could be considered a success if they disable the power source to Iranian centrifuges or make “the air too polluted” for centrifuges to operate.
Israel has “successfully neutralized the other parts of Iran’s fuel cycle” in Natanz and Isfahan, Ruhe stated. “If you aim to prevent a nuclear Iran, Fordow is a significant component of that,” Ruhe said. “But it’s only just a part of what still needs to be done and considered.”
Caitlin McFall contributed to this report.