OTTAWA – According to Canadian political analysts, while President Trump’s influence was widely seen as crucial to the Liberal Party’s fourth consecutive victory in last Monday’s Canadian general election, the Conservative leader’s actions also contributed to his party’s defeat.
University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams told Digital that Trump “set the stage” for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney to appear “as a somber leader for the Liberals,” reassuring voters amidst fears fueled by the president’s annexation threats. Adams noted that at the beginning of the campaign, people were worried about President Trump’s suggestion of annexing Canada as the 51st state.
Adams stated, “It’s highly unusual for American presidents to wade into Canadian politics, especially during elections.”
He further explained that the last instance of such interference was during the 1963 Canadian general election, when President John F. Kennedy reportedly spoke favorably about Canadian Liberal Leader Lester Pearson, whose party ousted Prime Minister John Diefenbaker’s Progressive Conservatives to win the election and form a minority government.
Trump directly involved himself in Canada’s election on April 28, acting as a quasi-candidate when he suggested that the “Great people of Canada” should “elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World…if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.”
Adams characterized the president’s annexation pitch, whether serious or not, as a form of “foreign interference.”
On Sunday, Trump stated that it was “highly unlikely” that the U.S. would use military force against Canada to annex it as the 51st state.
The president is scheduled to meet with the Canadian prime minister at the White House for the first time on Tuesday.
Following a post-election phone call with Carney last week, Trump described the Canadian leader as “very nice” and “couldn’t have been nicer.”
When asked about his upcoming meeting with the president, the prime minister told reporters at his first post-election press conference on Friday that Trump “respects – as others who are good negotiators, and he’s one of the best negotiators – strength. That’s why we’re building Canada strong.”
Before the Canadian election was called on March 23, the president told that he would “rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative,” adding that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is “stupidly no friend of mine.”
Trump previously told that the Conservative leader’s “biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy.”
“He’s not a Trump guy at all,” said the president.
Carney’s Liberals secured 169 out of 343 seats in the House of Commons, forming a minority government in Canada’s 45th general election with 44% of the popular vote. The Conservatives came in second, with 41% of the popular vote and 144 House seats.
Over 19.5 million Canadians voted in the election.
Poilievre lost his position as official opposition leader after being defeated in his Ottawa-area riding by Liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Carney, in his first bid for elected office, easily won his Ottawa seat.
Poilievre will contest a future byelection in an Alberta district after Conservative MP Damien Kurek, who was re-elected, agreed to step down.
At the beginning of the year, polls indicated that Poilievre was poised to become prime minister and lead his Conservatives to a majority government. However, according to Adams, who is writing a book about Canada’s public opinion-research industry, he failed to adapt quickly enough to the changing circumstances in Canada.
, whose deep unpopularity as Liberal leader and prime minister, resigned in March and was replaced by Carney, who eliminated an equally unpopular consumer carbon tax – two issues Poilievre continued to emphasize.
“And Poilievre kept saying the country is broken, which was the last thing Canadians wanted to hear when Trump was making our country broken,” said Adams, adding that the Conservative leader consistently had low likeability ratings.
“Canadians didn’t realize how much they disliked him until Trudeau was gone.”
Poilievre will meet in Ottawa on Tuesday with Conservative caucus members who won their ridings in last week’s election. They could decide whether he remains leader through the Reform Act – a 10-year-old law introduced in Parliament by re-elected Conservative MP Michael Chong that allows parliamentarians to hold leadership reviews following elections.
Conservative MPs will also need to select an interim official opposition leader.
Adams believes Poilievre’s position as party leader is secure, given the Conservatives’ strong electoral performance, which resulted in them gaining 16 more Commons seats in Ontario, the most populous Canadian province – at the expense of both the Liberals and the New Democrats – and their forming the largest official opposition in Canadian history.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus in the University of Toronto’s Department of Political Science, told Digital that the race between the Liberals and Conservatives tightened when Trump reduced his attacks on Canada in the latter part of the campaign.
The focus shifted to “Conservative issues – cost of living, affordability, housing, time for a change – while Carney was making speeches about Trump – because he knew that was his trump card, no pun intended – and it was wearing off,” Wiseman said.
May will be a busy month for Carney. Next week, he will announce his Cabinet, and on May 27, he will welcome to read the Speech from the Throne to open the next session of Parliament as Canada’s head of state – the first time the British monarch has come to Ottawa to perform that ceremonial role since Queen Elizabeth II in 1977, 20 years after she did so during her first visit to Canada.
Wiseman suggested that the royal visit is intended to demonstrate national unity in response to Trump’s threats against Canadian sovereignty.
However, Edward Schreyer, a former premier of Manitoba who served as governor general in Canada from 1979 to 1984, said to Digital, “I can’t believe that as many people are taking seriously this whole business of Trump talking about the annexation of Canada as an existential threat. I think the whole thing is a joke – and was at the beginning, is now and ever shall be an absurdity.”