Ireland held a parliamentary election on Friday to determine the next government, testing whether the nation would defy the global trend of voters ousting incumbents amid pandemic fallout, international instability, and rising living costs.

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0700 GMT), with Ireland’s 3.8 million eligible voters choosing 174 lawmakers for the Dail, the lower house of parliament.

This report examines the participating parties, key issues, and potential election outcomes.

The outgoing government comprised Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, despite their contrasting historical origins in Ireland’s 1920s civil war. Following a near-tie in the 2020 election, they formed a coalition government, sharing cabinet positions and rotating the premiership (Taoiseach). After serving as Taoiseach for half the term, Leo Varadkar was succeeded by Simon Harris in December 2022 following an unexpected resignation in March.

Sinn Fein, a left-leaning opposition party with historical ties to the Irish Republican Army, made a significant breakthrough in the 2020 election, winning the popular vote but being excluded from government due to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s opposition to their policies.

Ireland’s proportional representation system allows multiple lawmakers to be elected from each of the 43 constituencies, facilitating representation for smaller parties and independent candidates with strong local support. This election features numerous independent candidates, ranging from local activists to far-right figures and even alleged crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.

As in many countries, the cost of living, particularly housing, has dominated the campaign. Ireland faces a severe housing shortage stemming from insufficient new home construction during the “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the subsequent economic downturn. John-Mark McCafferty, CEO of housing charity Threshold, attributes this to a prioritization of office and hotel construction during economic recovery.

Consequently, house prices and rents have surged, leading to a rise in homelessness. Despite a decade of economic growth and substantial resources—including €13 billion ($13.6 billion) in back taxes ordered paid by Apple by the European Union—McCafferty notes that Ireland is grappling with significant historical infrastructural deficiencies.

Housing issues are intertwined with immigration, a relatively new challenge for a country historically marked by emigration. Recent influxes include over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees and thousands fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa. The country has struggled to accommodate all asylum seekers, resulting in makeshift housing and protests. A stabbing attack on children near a Dublin school last year, allegedly committed by an Algerian man, triggered the worst riots Ireland has seen in decades.

While lacking a significant far-right party, Ireland has seen a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment online and several anti-immigrant independent candidates are running. This issue appears to be impacting Sinn Fein’s support, as some working-class voters express dissatisfaction with its pro-immigration stance.

Opinion polls indicate a five-way split in voter support among Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, smaller parties, and independents. Fine Gael’s campaign has faced setbacks, Fianna Fail maintains stable poll numbers, and Sinn Fein claims growing momentum. However, Sinn Fein’s path to power depends on overcoming the other parties’ resistance to a coalition.

Analysts predict another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition is most likely, potentially including a smaller party or independents playing a kingmaker role. Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University, suggests this would continue the pattern of similar centrist governments.

Polling stations close at 10 p.m. (2200 GMT) on Friday, with an exit poll providing initial indications. Vote counting begins Saturday morning, with final results and government formation potentially taking days or weeks.

Casting his vote, Taoiseach Simon Harris acknowledged the lengthy process ahead, highlighting the complexity of Ireland’s electoral system which means even the exit poll will not fully determine the election outcome.