Ecuador is holding a crucial runoff election today, pitting current President Daniel Noboa against leftist candidate Luisa González. Noboa is perceived as a conservative with pro-Trump leanings, while González is seen as aligned with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Noboa has refused to acknowledge Maduro’s legitimacy following the contested 2024 election and has pledged to use all resources to combat criminal gangs and restore order in Ecuador.
González is expected to emulate her mentor, former president Rafael Correa, by fostering closer ties with leftist Latin American leaders like Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Chile’s Gabriel Boric.
“Security has been his main priority as president. He has dedicated considerable time, effort, and resources to address the security situation,” Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society and senior fellow of the America First Policy Institute, told Digital.
“However, the security situation has only marginally improved, and this is compounded by other issues,” Humire added.
González is campaigning on a platform that supports an increased military role in fighting gangs, but she also strongly opposes excessive force and human rights violations.
She “seems to have a more lenient view on crime, suggesting she may not be willing to pursue drug cartels but would likely try to negotiate with them,” Mathias Valdez Duffau, a visiting fellow at the Center for International Studies at Catholic University of Argentina, told Digital.
Valdez Duffao said that such a negotiation-based policy would resemble previous administrations and would emphasize comprehensive, government-led approaches to crime reduction aimed at integrating criminal gangs into society.
“In reality, negotiating with criminal gangs might provide the government with temporary flexibility, but the gangs become more powerful and ultimately corrupt government officials, which could lead the country to the brink of becoming a narco-state,” ValdezDuffao warned.
Violence and insecurity are voters’ primary concerns. Ecuador has the highest murder rate in Latin America, with 6,986 homicides recorded in 2024, the second-highest total in the country’s history. Approximately 95,000 people fled the country in 2024 as communities became battlegrounds for rival gangs vying for control.
President Noboa declared a state of internal armed conflict in 2024 and ordered the military to conduct operations to neutralize transnational organized crime groups. This anti-crime initiative led to increased military presence in prisons and communities.
Noboa also appealed to the international community for military assistance, suggesting that the U.S. army could collaborate with Ecuador to fight violent gangs.
Despite the president’s strict stance on crime, January 2025 was Ecuador’s in recent memory, with 781 deaths. Noboa partnered with Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, a private security firm, in March to create a strategic alliance to bolster Ecuador’s capacity to combat narcoterrorism.
InSight Crime, a nonprofit organization focused on organized crime and security in the Americas, reports that Ecuador is a major drug trafficking hub in the region, shipping cocaine from Peru and Colombia to Central America, Mexico, and Europe. Many of these operating through local proxies and other criminal groups, have infiltrated the prison system and expanded its network of street gangs.
These groups, active throughout Ecuadorian society and within the prison system, collaborate with domestic and international drug traffickers, including the Sinaloa Cartel, considered one of the world’s most powerful drug trafficking organizations and a major source of fentanyl trafficked into the U.S., according to the Department of Justice.
Both President Noboa and González received about 44% of the vote in the first round. González leads the Citizen Revolution movement and is viewed as the successor to former President Correa. She also aims to become Ecuador’s first female president. If she wins, Ecuador may see a return to Correa’s leftist economic policies.
Regardless of who wins the runoff, they will have to deal with a divided National Assembly, making it even harder to pass legislation to solve the country’s pervasive violence and economic problems.
Saúl Medina, a former governor of Tungurahua, told Digital that a comprehensive and determined strategy to fight gang violence must be implemented after the election.
According to Medina, two critical issues that must be addressed are strengthening institutions and improving oversight of the to eliminate corruption, as well as reforming the prison system.
“Prisons must no longer be operational centers for gangs,” Medina added.
Valdez Duffao, Humire, and other Latin America experts agree that Noboa has aligned himself with President Trump. They share similar ideologies, and a Noboa victory could improve his ability to address the country’s endemic violence.
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