The U.S. is on a path toward a global war against its top adversaries, who have formed an alliance of “malign partnerships,” and that neither the U.S. military nor the public is prepared for World War III.

In late July, a group of independent national security experts, initially tasked by Congress in 2022 under the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, released an assessment of the U.S.’ overall security strategy presented by the Biden administration two years ago.

As a result of post-Cold War policies that reduced defense spending and investments in the security sector, Washington, D.C., is “not prepared” to confront Beijing in an open conflict, let alone a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

The commission, composed of four Republicans and four Democrats who served under the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama administrations, aimed to clarify that the lack of preparedness is not solely the fault of any single administration, but rather the failure of a generation of leaders to recognize and address the escalating threat posed by authoritarian nations, as well as to inform the American public.

The experts explained that the U.S. and its allies are facing a threat unparalleled since WWII, as Europe witnesses the largest land war on the continent since 1945—a war in which Russia is receiving aid from China, Iran, and North Korea.

The threat of a major war between nation states, not just rogue militants or terrorist groups, looms in the Middle East, and the possibility of open conflict in the Indo-Pacific also remains a significant concern.

“There’s been a generalized failure across our political class in educating the American public of the severity of these threats and the danger that they represent,” Amb. Eric Edelman, who served as vice-chair for the 2024 commission as well as co-chair or vice chair for prior commission reports, said at an event hosted by JINSA this week.

“Historically, I’m sad to say, that when we’re faced with these kinds of challenges, we have typically responded after a catastrophe,” he added, referring to events like Pearl Harbor and 9/11. “Perhaps we can draw from some different lessons in history.”

The experts pointed to the decline in defense spending—which has been in a downward trend since 1952 when the U.S. allocated nearly 17% of its GDP for defense compared to the 3% allocated today—and warned that this investment in security is insufficient to effectively counter adversaries like China.

After reviewing unclassified war games, the commission found that even with Washington’s efforts to increase weapons stockpiles following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. would likely still deplete its munitions inventories within three to four weeks if it were to engage in open conflict with Beijing.

Some munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, are estimated to last only a few days, and once expended, it will take years to replace them.

Edelman emphasized that this is not a justification for halting military aid to Ukraine and highlighted that a direct war against an adversary like China or Russia would be significantly more expensive, let alone a global conflict unseen since the 20th century.

“Preparing ourselves for defense is essentially an effort to deter conflict,” Edelman said. “Whatever the cost of defense is going to be, it’s going to be paltry in comparison to what the cost of a war would be.”

Near the end of World War II, the U.S. allocated more than in 1943 and 1944, and the commission cautioned that modern wars, as witnessed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Ukraine, are prolonged engagements.

“The United States must therefore ready its forces and its industrial base for the potential of protracted conflict,” the commission’s report stated.

However, the experts also warned that preparing the U.S. for a global power struggle cannot be resolved solely by pouring money into the defense budget; there also needs to be a “shift in culture.”

Mara Rudman, commissioner and former deputy assistant to the president for National Security Affairs during the Clinton and Obama administrations, pointed to steps China has been taking over the past several decades that have given it an advantage over the U.S., including in its technology sectors and its expanding influence in Africa and recently, the Middle East.

“They spent the last 20 years building the , making sure that they control processing and mining for most of the critical minerals that we need for a range of different weapon systems we have, but also for our phones and for the kinds of cars we need to build, and for the batteries that we need to have across the board,” she told reporters this week. “That’s something we need to overcome.”

There has been a growing movement in Republican circles in the U.S. to withdraw from international involvement, contributing to that is similar to U.S. sentiments leading up to World War II, and experts are raising concerns that this needs to change if Americans do not want to find themselves entangled in another global war.

“It’s going to require leadership, and it’s going to require educating the American public,” Edelman, who served under the Bush administration, said.

The experts on the bipartisan commission agreed that the American people not only need to be better informed by their leaders but also need to be trusted to make decisions that are in the best interests of their nation when properly informed.

Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Trump campaign were briefed by experts on the results of the commission.

While the White House and Harris campaign have not publicly commented on the findings, the former president’s response to the report seemed to contradict what the commission urged, during a rally in late August—prompting the experts to question whether Trump had been adequately briefed by his campaign.

“I really think it’s impossible to read the report that they’ve delivered and not believe that we are as a nation…sleepwalking into a great and potentially historic catastrophe,” host of the event and JINSA’s Charles & Randi Wax senior fellow, John Hannah, said. “We are not on the brink of a national crisis—in many ways, we’re already deep into a crisis.

“And we do not have our Churchill at the moment,” Hannah, who also served during the Bush administration, added. “The commission on the National Defense Strategy has fulfilled its mission. Now we need everybody else to play their part around the country and in the halls of power in Washington.”