Amid intensifying nationwide protests in Iran and increasing verbal threats from the Trump administration, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a direct warning to the United States this week via an unconventional channel — his Russian-language X account — a decision experts say highlights Tehran’s growing partnership with Moscow as the regime faces mounting pressure.
On Jan. 11, Khamenei posted in Russian, stating, “The United States today is miscalculating in its approach toward Iran.” Several hours later, he posted a second message, again in Russian, cautioning that Americans had previously faced defeat due to “miscalculations” and would repeat that outcome because of “erroneous planning.”
Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economy and Security (ROPES) and an associate fellow at Chatham House, noted that the choice of language was significant, despite the awkward delivery.
“The Russian is poor quality,” Svetlova told Digital. “It appears to be machine-translated, likely by Google Translate, rather than by a person.” Nevertheless, she added that Khamenei’s use of his Russian-language account was expected, considering the increasingly close ties between Iran and Russia in recent years.
Khamenei’s warning coincided with a worsening domestic crisis in Iran. HRANA, a human rights group monitoring the unrest, reports that at least 544 individuals have died in the nationwide protests, with several dozen more cases being investigated. The opposition group NCRI asserts that the actual death toll is significantly higher — exceeding 3,000 — though precise numbers are hard to confirm due to extensive internet shutdowns enforced by Iranian officials.
President has spearheaded U.S. condemnation regarding the growing number of casualties. When asked if Iran had crossed a red line, Trump replied, “It appears they are starting to. It looks like some people are being killed who shouldn’t be. These are violent individuals. Whether you call them leaders or not, I’m not sure—they rule through violence. But we are taking this very seriously,” he stated Sunday while on Air Force One.
“We are considering some very powerful options,” he added.
Iranian officials have countered these statements, charging Washington with meddling and cautioning that any American military intervention would provoke retaliatory strikes on U.S. forces and regional allies.
Simultaneously, Tehran has indicated its desire to maintain open. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated Monday that dialogue between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff continues. Axios also reported that Araghchi contacted Witkoff over the weekend following Trump’s threats of potential military strikes.
Even with these diplomatic gestures, experts say Khamenei’s Russian-language post reveals which country Iran views as its most dependable strategic ally.
Russia has emerged as a , especially since Moscow depends on Iranian-provided drones and other military hardware for its Ukraine campaign. This reliance, Svetlova noted, suggests that domestic turmoil in Iran could have major repercussions for the Kremlin.
“I believe that could have a dramatic impact, because they are dependent on Iran — particularly for military manufacturing, the drones and ballistic missiles,” she said. “They require them to sustain their .”
However, this partnership has also generated resentment within Iran. Svetlova highlighted the backlash after the 12-day conflict with Israel, when numerous Iranians criticized Moscow for not supporting Tehran.
“There was considerable criticism in Iran directed at Russia for not providing assistance,” she said. “They didn’t make contact. They essentially did nothing.”
Nevertheless, she noted that Russia has limited options as its international standing becomes more constrained. With traditional allies either weakened or overthrown, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Moscow is growing more dependent on Tehran — even while maintaining near-total silence on the protests engulfing Iran.
In this context, Svetlova explained, Khamenei’s Russian-language warning seems intended as a message — both to Washington and to Moscow — that Iran regards its standoff with the United States as forming a united front with .