Last week, the President stated that underground nuclear facilities in Iran, targeted by U.S. bombing, were “obliterated,” further noting that joint U.S. and Israeli attacks caused “monumental damage to all nuclear sites in Iran.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated this sentiment, stating that the “CIA can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by recent targeted strikes.”
According to Israeli intelligence sources who spoke with Digital, attacks on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan resulted in severe, potentially irreversible damage to Iran’s established enrichment infrastructure. One official remarked, “We hit the heart of their capabilities.”
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED ACTIVITY AT IRAN’S FORDOWNUCLEAR COMPLEX FOLLOWING U.S. AIRSTRIKES
However, despite the mission’s significant success, uncertainties persist regarding what remains and what might ensue. Analysts caution that although Iran’s publicly acknowledged facilities have been largely dismantled, hidden components of the program could still be present, and stores of enriched uranium might reappear.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi stated on Saturday that even though “it’s clear that what happened in particular in Fordow, Natanz, [and] Isfahan—where Iran used to have, and still has to some degree, capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion, and enrichment of uranium—has been destroyed to an important degree,” the danger persists.
Nuclear experts indicate that while Iran’s nuclear advancement has suffered a major setback, the regime might still possess the technical expertise and remaining capacities to rebuild its program eventually – particularly if it opts for secrecy.
A report from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) concluded that Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, along with subsequent U.S. bunker-busting strikes, “effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program.” However, authors David Albright and Spencer Faragasso warned that “residuals such as stocks of 60%, 20%, and 3-5% enriched uranium and centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed… pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium”.
Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), mirrored that apprehension in a discussion with Digital.
“The current threat is indeed significantly diminished,” Ruhe stated. “However, detection from this point forward will be considerably more challenging because Iran might attempt to reconstruct covertly. They require minimal space or time to enrich from 60% to 90%. Furthermore, the IAEA has indicated for years that Iran likely maintains some undisclosed capacity.”
Ruhe further noted that while Israeli intelligence was probably cognizant of efforts to relocate uranium prior to the strikes, “any future planning assumption must account for Iran’s remaining capacity – even if it’s reduced.”
John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute, suggested that critics contending the program was not entirely dismantled are overlooking the broader context.
“Is it possible for everything to be reconstructed eventually? Absolutely. However, there’s no doubt the program has been set back – by years, if not longer,” Spencer informed Digital. “Individuals concentrate on the quantity of uranium unaccounted for. Yet, constructing a bomb demands considerably more than just material. It necessitates the conversion, metallurgy, and delivery system – all of which sustained impacts.”
Dr. Or Rabinowitz, a nuclear proliferation scholar at Hebrew University and visiting associate professor at Stanford, observed that numerous uncertainties persist.
“There is currently no confirmed information regarding the fate of the 60% enriched uranium – or the other feedstocks at 20% or 3.5%,” Rabinowitz stated. “Should Iran possess advanced centrifuges, they could theoretically re-enrich to weapons-grade – but the number of surviving centrifuges or their operational state remains unknown.”
She further clarified that even if the material is retained, transforming uranium gas into metal for a weapon necessitates a specialized facility. “Based on available information, the conversion facility in Isfahan was struck. Without it, Iran confronts a substantial impediment,” she commented. However, she cautioned that nuclear weapons technology is not impossible to master: “This is science from the 1940s. If North Korea managed it, Iran could as well – eventually.”
The ISIS report indicated that “extensive damage” was verified across almost all primary Iranian nuclear and missile installations, encompassing the demolition of uranium metal conversion plants, fuel fabrication centers, and the IR-40 Arak heavy water reactor. The report further specified that Israeli and U.S. attacks “rendered the Fordow site inoperable,” referencing high-resolution satellite imagery depicting deep bunker penetrations.
Rabinowitz also highlighted that the intelligence situation continues to evolve in real time. “The Israelis and Americans are currently working diligently to produce the most precise intelligence assessment possible,” she remarked. “While I lack my own sources within Mossad, I can assure that Israelis are tracking internal Iranian communications, attempting to ascertain what the Iranians have discovered. As they gain further insight, so too will Israel and the U.S.”
While discussions persist regarding whether the attacks were sufficient to permanently cripple Iran’s nuclear aspirations, analysts concur on one aspect: Iran’s belief that it could advance its program without repercussions has vanished.
During a Friday press conference, Trump was questioned whether he would again target Iran’s nuclear program should it recommence. He informed reporters, “Certainly, without a doubt.”