Despite stringent U.S. sanctions, Iran has seen a surge in oil revenues during the Biden administration, according to a new report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA’s report, mandated by Congress, found that Iran’s petroleum and petroleum product exports generated between $53 billion and $54 billion in revenue in 2022 and 2023, a significant increase from $37 billion in 2021 and $16 billion in 2020.
These figures represent a stark contrast to the $65 billion in nominal revenue earned by Iran in 2018, before the Trump administration implemented its “maximum pressure” campaign.
The report highlights China as a key export partner for Iran, enabling it to circumvent sanctions and continue profiting from its energy exports.
The Trump administration’s sanctions, targeting various Iranian industries and companies, were intended to cripple the country’s economy. The administration claimed that Iran had entered a “deep recession” and that oil exports had “plummeted” as a result of these measures.
In contrast, the Biden administration pursued a strategy of offering sanctions waivers to Iran, hoping to incentivize negotiations for a renewed nuclear deal. However, this approach proved unsuccessful.
Despite the lack of progress on the nuclear deal, the Biden administration continued to issue waivers, including those allowing Iraq to purchase Iranian oil, a practice initiated under the Trump administration.
Richard Goldberg, a former Trump National Security Council official, criticized the Biden administration’s sanctions policy, stating that it lacks “pressure” and that there is no “active campaign to stop these shipments.”
A Reuters report in 2023 indicated that China, the world’s largest oil importer, has shown an increasing appetite for Iranian crude oil, likely driven by its discounted prices due to sanctions.
The EIA report acknowledges the difficulty in accurately accounting for discounts in its data.
Iran’s 2023 oil exports, averaging 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), mark the country’s highest export volume in over four years, with more than 80% directed to China, according to consultancies FGE and Vortexa.
Some critics argue that Iran’s revenue figures are not entirely accurate, as oil prices have fluctuated significantly in recent years, potentially skewing the data.
Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, acknowledges the impact of fluctuating prices but points to the increase in Iranian revenue despite ongoing discounts as evidence of continued exports.
The EIA, relying on data from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and other third-party sources, recognizes the challenges of data availability and transparency and notes that its report uses only sources and data it has “reasonably high confidence” in.
The EIA clarifies that its data is based on estimates rather than actual data, and that these estimates are subject to change with the availability of new information.
The report categorizes exports to Southeast Asian countries, specifically Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, as misdirections intended to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Chinese imports.
On Friday, the State Department, along with the Treasury Department, imposed new sanctions on Iran’s energy sector in response to recent attacks on Israel.
The statement accompanying the sanctions emphasizes their aim to intensify financial pressure on Iran, limiting its ability to generate revenue from the energy sector and undermine regional stability.
Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor, stated that the new sanctions include measures targeting entities involved in the transportation of Iranian oil to global buyers.
A request for comment from the Vice President Kamala Harris’ spokesperson and the State Department went unanswered.
Reuters contributed to this report.