Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by an al Qaeda-linked insurgency and the ensuing instability, the Israeli Air Force targeted the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus, Syria, on Thursday.

Since Damascus fell on Dec. 8, 2024, Israel has been deploying forces to the demilitarized buffer zone with Syria and engaging in diplomatic efforts to influence the power dynamics.

According to Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan Conricus, a former IDF spokesman and current senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Israeli forces are concentrated on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and the northern part of the Syrian Golan Heights, generally along the Bravo Line.

Conricus stated that the main threat is a ground invasion of Israeli communities on the Golan Heights by various jihadi groups. He added that Israeli troops will remain deployed until the political and military situation stabilizes, security guarantees are in place, and a sovereign entity controls Syria, limiting the approach of terror organizations.

While many global actors may overlook the violence in Syria in hopes of resolving the nearly 15-year crisis, analysts suggest Israel cannot afford to do so. This has led the IDF to conduct over 300 strikes in the country, including against Assad regime air force bases and suspected chemical weapons sites immediately after the regime change.

On Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir visited the buffer zone with Syria for a situational assessment, marking the first time a chief of staff has entered Syria.

John Hannah, a Senior Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said that immediately after the regime’s fall, Israel devastated Syrian military capabilities to prevent advanced capabilities and air defense systems from falling into the wrong hands and to clear the way for potential future overflights in Syria.

Hannah added that Israel has established checkpoints in certain Druze areas along the border and has expressed its willingness to protect the Druze population, citing the significant Druze minority within Israel who are loyal citizens and serve in the army. Israel has a strong domestic interest in ensuring the safety of Druze communities near its borders in Syria, especially after the recent massacres along the Syrian coast.

Last week, a minority sect of Shiite Islam, as well as a number of Christians were murdered over the course of a few days in the coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia. These killings have highlighted concerns about the new Sunni Islamist government led by al-Sharaa, the commander of the al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which deposed Assad.

Conricus stated that the massacres have validated Israel’s strategy, emphasizing that the persecution of the Alawites, Christians, Kurds and Druze population constitutes a danger to regional stability.

He noted the threat posed by sectarian violence from various foreign jihadi groups and emphasized that Israel cannot jeopardize the safety of its civilians until the Syrian state controls all weapons.

Conricus also highlighted the ongoing efforts by Hezbollah and Iranian factions to smuggle weapons into Syria, with Tehran continuing to operate proxies, as well as Turkish imperialistic behavior, which could lead to confrontation. He suggested that maintaining the borders defined by the French after World War I will be a challenge for the Syrian state.

Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, stated that Jerusalem aims to keep Syria decentralized and weak, rather than united under jihadi forces.

Spyer said that Turkey is the main supporter of HTS, and Israel views Ankara as a hostile country due to Hamas’ active operations office there and Turkey’s support for Hamas in the war.

While Russia opposes the U.S.-led global bloc that includes Israel, there is no direct conflict between the two countries. Russia did not interfere with Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran in Syria.

Reportedly, Israel is urging the Trump administration to keep Syria fragmented by allowing Russia to maintain its bases in the country to counter Iranian influence.

In 2015, Russia intervened in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime, establishing outposts in the Middle East for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Jerusalem and Moscow have established a deconfliction mechanism to prevent direct military encounters during IDF strikes against Iranian terror assets in Syria and those intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Spyer said that HTS is an organization that Israel knows well. It was there for several years prior to fall of Assad and its record shows it is a Sunni Jihadi Islamist organization supportive of [Hamas’] Oct. 7 [massacre] and opposed to Israel and Jews.

Spyer added that Israel’s experiences before and during Oct. 7, as well as in the Gaza war, have taught Israelis not to harbor illusions about Sunni Islamists, even when they claim to be moderate.