Tensions over the disputed Kashmir region are escalating, raising concerns that a localized conflict could escalate into a larger crisis, destabilizing the area.
China, under President Xi Jinping, is closely monitoring the situation due to its own interests in the Kashmir dispute.
Sadanand Dhume of AEI stated, “The stakes are significant for China, as Pakistan is a key ally, and Beijing wants to avoid seeing them weakened. From the perspective of U.S.-China rivalry, each nation has a vested interest in this conflict. China firmly supports Pakistan, while the U.S. and India have strengthened their relationship over the past two decades.”
The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan following 9/11 fostered a reliance on Pakistan for logistical support and intelligence, necessitating close collaboration. Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, U.S. engagement with Pakistan has decreased, diminishing Islamabad’s importance to Washington’s foreign policy objectives.
Max Abrahms of Northeastern University suggests that the Kashmir conflict could become a battleground for U.S.-China competition.
Abrahms said, “The India-Pakistan conflict may evolve into a proxy war, with the U.S. backing India and China supporting Pakistan.”
Yigal Carmon, president of MEMRI, warns that the Kashmir issue extends beyond a simple India-Pakistan clash. He believes that an escalation could lead to Pakistan’s fragmentation, with consequences for Afghanistan, Iran, and China.
Carmon stated, “Balochistan may soon gain de-facto independence. China stands to lose significantly from such an event, given its substantial investments in the Gwadar Port, situated in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.”
India launched retaliatory strikes in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir after a terrorist attack on April 22 in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 tourists.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed a strong response, promising to pursue the perpetrators relentlessly.
The extent of Pakistan’s response remains uncertain, but the Pakistani military, a major force in the nation’s politics, is likely to seek a robust reaction to avoid appearing weak.
Dhume of AEI noted, “A humiliating defeat for Pakistan would weaken the military’s control over the country.”
Dhume also added that any conflict destabilizing Pakistan could embolden separatist movements in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, who have long sought independence.
Chatham House’s Chietigj Bajpaee believes that India will aim to limit the conflict, focusing on targeting terrorists while minimizing civilian casualties.
Bajpaee told Digital that maintaining an anti-India stance is crucial to the legitimacy of Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies, and a strong military posture is needed to alleviate domestic pressures.
“While I don’t foresee Pakistan’s imminent collapse or the conflict spreading to Iran or Afghanistan, it could fundamentally alter the relationship between the military and the civilian government and population, which is already weakening,” Bajpaee said.
Many experts and policymakers fear that the clashes could lead to unintentional escalation between two nuclear powers. India and Pakistan possess an estimated 342 nuclear warheads combined, according to the Arms Control Association, and their nuclear strategies are driven by mutual hostility and a desire to deter each other.
President Donald Trump stated he wants to see India and Pakistan “work it out” and offered his assistance, saying, “if I can do anything to help, I will be there.”
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