(SeaPRwire) –   By: Douglas Vance

Kim Jong Un just announced a 5-year plan to build two large warships every year. That changes the entire risk calculation for East Asian sea lanes. Most analysts have written off North Korea’s navy as a weak, outdated afterthought for decades. This build-up is not just a minor upgrade to a neglected force. It directly threatens the busiest maritime trading chokepoints in the world. Half of global container trade passes through waters within striking distance of North Korean ports. Any shift in naval capability here sends immediate shivers through global shipping insurance markets. Even the hint of expanded sea-based nuclear capability changes deterrence calculations. It changes them for South Korea, Japan, and the United States alike. Many observers miss the strategic logic behind this move. North Korea has built up its land-based nuclear deterrent for decades. Now it is moving to secure the maritime domain to complete its deterrent triad.

Kim laid out the plan at a commissioning ceremony for a new Choe Hyon-class destroyer. The event took place at the port of Nampho. The new vessel is a 5,000-ton multipurpose destroyer. It successfully completed 14 months of military operational tests before deployment. In April, Kim observed launches of two cruise missiles and three anti-ship missiles from the ship. He previously called the Choe Hyon class a major step for expanding operational reach. It also boosts North Korea’s preemptive strike capabilities. The plan calls for two 5,000-ton class vessels per year for the next five years. It also includes development of larger 10,000-ton strategic warships. Another 5,000-ton destroyer, the Kang Kon, was first unveiled last May. It suffered damage during a failed launch in the northern port of Chongjin. It was later repaired and relaunched. Kim also confirmed the navy’s nuclearization is advancing along its own course. It already contributes to the country’s overall nuclear deterrence. Kim called building modernized naval bases a desperate and essential task. State media confirm he is currently reviewing plans for new base construction. Last Monday, he told the Workers’ Party Central Committee the navy will see major changes. The changes will affect its status, role and scope of operations. He did not elaborate on what those changes will entail.

The conventional wisdom has always been that North Korea prioritizes land forces. It has prioritized land-based ballistic missiles over naval power for decades. That narrative is now completely obsolete. The main target of this build-up is not an all-out invasion of South Korea. It is extending North Korea’s nuclear deterrent out to open water. A nuclear-armed naval force can deter US carrier strike groups from approaching the Korean peninsula. Before this build-up, US carriers could operate relatively freely off the Korean coast. That will no longer be the case. It also gives North Korea the ability to disrupt global shipping in any crisis. That raises the stakes for any outside military intervention dramatically. Any conflict would immediately hit global trade, not just regional security. Right now, insurance rates for commercial shipping in Northeast Asia have not moved much. That will change within six months as markets price in the new risk. South Korea and Japan already have been expanding their submarine and destroyer fleets. They will accelerate those plans dramatically in response to this announcement. The US will also increase freedom of navigation patrols in the region to counter the build-up. This sets off an irreversible naval arms race in Northeast Asia. No amount of diplomatic talks will reverse this shift in the regional balance of power.

Author bio: Douglas Vance, maritime defense scholar focused on Northeast Asian naval security and intelligence analysis.