The upcoming NATO summit, scheduled for June 24-25 in The Hague, Netherlands, is set to focus on key defense matters. These include boosting national defense spending, providing assistance to Ukraine, addressing emerging threats from Iran, and navigating relations with the U.S. under President Trump.

With this being Trump’s first transatlantic summit since his return to the White House in January, his interactions will be closely watched, given his history of contentious exchanges with U.S. allies at past gatherings.

Following the recent U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran is anticipated to be a central topic of discussion.

Here’s a look at the expected agenda:

SPENDING

UKRAINE

IRAN, RUSSIA, CHINA

In a statement released a week before the summit, NATO indicated that leaders are expected to agree on a “new defense investment plan.” This follows speculation that the alliance might increase its spending targets from 2% of a nation’s GDP to 5%.

Trump initially proposed this idea after his election. While the potential impact on nations not yet meeting the 2% commitment, as well as the U.S. (currently at 3.38%), is significant, many are considering it.

It remains unconfirmed whether NATO will adopt the 5% target. Sources suggest a figure closer to 3.5% over a 10-year period might be considered. It was recently announced that Spain will be granted an opt-out from the 5% target, instead committing to 2.1%, according to the Associated Press.

“The primary focus will be the new defense spending target,” stated Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “The proposed 5% of GDP includes 3.5% for core defense spending.

“The remaining 1.5% can be allocated to related areas like cybersecurity or military mobility infrastructure,” he explained before testifying to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about the summit.

NATO Secretary General has consistently advocated for increased defense spending, especially as Europe faces what he considers its greatest threat since World War II.

Earlier this month, prior to a NATO ministerial meeting that served as preparation for the summit, Rutte stated that leaders “will strengthen our deterrence and defense by agreeing ambitious new capability targets.”

He identified missile defense, long-range strike capabilities, and deterrence as key priorities, driven by Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and escalating threats from a .

The defense of is expected to be a key agenda item. This issue has been a major factor in motivating NATO to significantly increase spending, a trend that began after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

However, given Trump’s consistent calls for increased defense spending, his from Europe, and his opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, Ukraine’s defense may not be as prominent this year.

“There won’t be nearly as much focus on Ukraine as during the past few summits,” Rough argued. “The White House is laser-focused on the defense investment pledge, and none of the other allies want to rock the boat.”

While countries like have taken on more prominent leadership roles and affirmed their support for Ukraine, they have also been careful to manage their transatlantic relationship with Washington under Trump.

“I’d expect a short, concise summit declaration with some mention of Ukraine but none of the ornate language that characterized past communiqués,” Rough added.

Ukrainian President is expected to attend parts of the summit, such as the opening dinner, though his attendance at official NATO meetings is not yet confirmed.

Reports suggest Trump might object to Zelenskyy’s presence at a NATO event, given the apparent stall in ceasefire negotiations with Russia, which have been overshadowed by the .

Trump has a history of strong reactions at NATO summits, including a 2018 clash with then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accusing Berlin of being “totally controlled by Russia” and calling it “a bad thing for NATO.”

Following the U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran is expected to be a major focus for NATO members as tensions rise with Tehran.

Russia also remains a concern, with its war in Ukraine continuing and intelligence agencies warning that “Russia’s postwar focus will be on NATO.”

Rough, in his Senate testimony, highlighted findings by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Agency, stating that “We see that NATO’s collective defense promise is to be tested…We are very sure, and we have intelligence evidence to back this up, that Ukraine is only one step on Russia’s path towards the West.”

Danish intelligence issued similar warnings, suggesting Russia could launch against a neighboring nation within six months of regrouping after a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Rutte emphasized the seriousness of the threat posed by Russia, saying that if nations don’t take the 5% defense spending target seriously, “you better learn to speak Russian.”

The during its war in Ukraine have also highlighted the threat posed by China, North Korea, and Iran, all of which have supported Russia’s war efforts.

While China claims neutrality, it has with electronic components critical for modern warfare. Iran has provided drones and technical expertise, while North Korea has supplied munitions, equipment, and even personnel.

China and Russia have reaffirmed their partnership against the West, while North Korea has been emboldened and received in exchange for its support, posing a threat to both Eastern partners and Western interests.

Rough cautioned that “Russian President remains implacably opposed to the U.S.-European partnership, which he seeks to undermine at every opportunity.”

He added, citing U.S. military officials in Europe, that removing U.S. troops from Europe would be a mistake given the growing threats.

Troop agreements, collective defense, and U.S. involvement in deterring Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are all expected to be major discussion points.

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