A new report from the Henry Jackson Society (HJS) reveals significant inaccuracies and distortions in the casualty figures released by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) during the recent conflict. The report highlights the widespread use of these inflated numbers by global media with minimal verification.
The HJS study found flaws in the MoH’s data collection, leading to a skewed representation of the conflict. The analysis examined how international news outlets disseminated the MoH’s misleading data, often neglecting alternative sources like Israeli reports.
HJS researcher Andrew Fox based his findings on casualty data from the MoH (released via Telegram) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Despite difficulties in accessing and verifying the constantly changing MoH data, Fox’s team analyzed key aspects of the reporting.
On Tuesday, Gaza health officials updated their death toll to over 45,000.
The report points out that the MoH’s data consistently emphasized the deaths of women and children, fueling accusations of intentional Israeli targeting of civilians. Fox argues that if civilian deaths were indiscriminate, the proportion of adult male deaths would mirror pre-war demographics (approximately 26%). However, the reported number of adult male deaths is significantly higher.
The HJS analysis uncovered instances of improper record-keeping, artificially inflating the number of women and children listed as casualties. This included misgendering individuals and recording adults as children.
Categorical analysis of the MoH data further revealed biases. The data comprised hospital records (pre-network collapse in November 2023), family-submitted reports, and data from “media sources”—whose reliability has been previously questioned. Gender breakdowns showed discrepancies, with hospital reports indicating a higher percentage of women and children than family reports.
The study notes that the MoH figures fail to account for the approximately 5,000 annual natural deaths in Gaza and exclude deaths unrelated to Israeli military actions. This includes cases like 13-year-old Ahmed Shaddad Halmy Brikeh, listed as a casualty in August despite reports of his death by Hamas in December 2023. The count also omits those killed by Hamas rockets (around 1,750) that fell short within Gaza between October 2023 and July 2024.
The HJS research also identified individuals who died before the conflict and cancer patients scheduled for treatment abroad who were listed as deceased before their scheduled departure date.
The MoH does not differentiate between combatants and civilians. While Israeli forces reported killing approximately 17,000 Hamas terrorists, Fox’s research suggests the figure could be closer to 22,000. His findings also estimate approximately 15,000 civilian women and children deaths, and 7,500 non-combatant adult male deaths.
Fox acknowledged the challenges of data collection in a war zone, but concluded that the MoH’s inaccuracies, whether intentional or not, render its data unreliable.
The HJS survey of media coverage found that 98% of news organizations relied on MoH data, compared to 5% using Israeli figures. Fewer than 2% of articles questioned the MoH data’s veracity, while half of the articles citing Israeli data questioned its credibility.
Fox cited a British broadcaster’s article on the over 45,000 Gaza deaths as an example of biased reporting. The article, while mentioning the MoH source, failed to address the data’s questionable reliability or provide a breakdown of combatants and civilians, instead echoing the MoH’s claim of women and children comprising over half the casualties.
“It’s a perfect illustration of the issues detailed in our report,” Fox concluded.