With Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Syria’s future governance is uncertain, prompting speculation about a potential moderation of the Islamist group’s stance or a Taliban-like rule.
The U.S.-designated terrorist organization, ruling Idlib Governorate in northwest Syria, established the Syrian Salvation Government, claiming to shift focus from global jihad to local administration. In Idlib, it implemented a bureaucratic system and ministries to manage public services, including security.
“It has governed with an iron fist,” Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Digital.
At its peak, HTS controlled roughly 2 million people in Idlib. Its leader attempted to rebrand the group, distancing it from al-Qaeda’s global jihadist elements and prioritizing local concerns.
Questions remain about potential governance of all Syria. Observers caution against viewing HTS as democratic, based on its Idlib record.
Hall noted mixed behavior in Idlib, including the expulsion of Christians, though she knows of religious minorities, including Alawites, coexisting peacefully there.
Other aspects of their rule are more concerning.
“Regarding their iron fist, HTS suppressed dissent. Reportedly, they killed prominent activist Raed Fares. Recent protests in Idlib also concerned deaths in HTS custody,” Hall stated.
HTS’s intolerance was evident in the suppression of political dissent. Hall also mentioned individuals personally known to her who were assaulted by HTS fighters.
Golani did reduce strict Islamic interpretations and limited the power of the morality police. The current concern, according to Hall, isn’t solely HTS’s past actions, but the power vacuum following Assad’s removal.
“Everyone will vie for power and influence,” Hall said, emphasizing the need for the U.S. and the West to mitigate risks and ensure a more stable Syria by addressing vulnerabilities of potential governing groups.
Tammy Palacios, program manager at the New Lines Institute, noted that while al-Golani actively distanced himself from his jihadist past, moderation within other HTS levels remains unclear.
HTS security forces were known to “arrest, judge, torture, detain, and kill individuals” under Sharia law, exercising tight control in Idlib. Elements of HTS administration also promoted a hardline interpretation of Sharia law.
After removing the Assad regime, HTS formed a transitional government, the Syrian Salvation Government, appointing Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister. HTS leader al-Golani and the interim prime minister interacted with former Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Ghazi Al-Jalali, who chose to stay in Damascus.
During their swift takeover, HTS pledged to protect all Syrians’ rights, regardless of faith or ethnicity, and promised to protect Shia religious sites. Upon entering Damascus and Assad’s flight, al-Golani prevented attacks on government ministries and worked with Jalali to maintain government operations.
Al-Golani, with a $10 million U.S. bounty, aims to present a less radical image of Islamism. He was previously detained by the U.S. military. Following the Syrian uprising, he formed Jabhat al-Nusra.
He initially pledged allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri but severed ties in 2016, with Nusra becoming HTS in 2017. Many saw this as superficial, and al-Qaeda condemned HTS’s formation, widening the rift.
While governing Idlib, HTS targeted rivals, including Ahrar Al-Sham, Hurras Al-Din, and other al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups. Similar to U.S. negotiations with the Taliban, combating terrorism and preventing Syria from becoming a terrorist haven will be crucial for U.S. and allied recognition.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed direct U.S. contact with HTS since Assad’s overthrow. HTS offered cooperation in the search for Austin Tice, the American journalist missing since 2012, believed held by the Assad regime. This initial contact and pledge to aid in Tice’s return could legitimize the group as it consolidates power.
The U.S. and U.K. are considering removing HTS from their foreign terrorist lists, a key factor if HTS consolidates Syrian rule. Hall suggests HTS needs a clear plan for delisting.
“It’s vital now, and needs to be swift, because a designated terrorist group ruling a country could have devastating humanitarian and economic consequences unseen in a decade,” she said.
Digital’s Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report.