(SeaPRwire) –

By: Julian Holbrooke

The digital signature on the Trump-Iran memorandum looks decisive. It promises peace. It promises a $300 billion investment fund. But the legal architecture beneath it is crumbling. Experts warn this plan is close to impossible. The construction sector is the problem. Washington already identified it as IRGC-controlled.

The memorandum claims the US will lift sanctions. Tehran expects oil revenue access. They want banking system restoration. It is part of a 14-point plan. Yet the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act blocks this. State Department determinations from 2020 and May 2025 hold weight. IRGC control creates sanctions risks for any company. Miad Maleki notes Congress is unavoidable for a durable version.

Executive actions can only offer temporary relief. Waivers expire every 180 days. Investors need long-term certainty. Construction projects take years. They are not 180-day projects. Maleki says finding investors is hard. The partner is unreliable. Things can blow up any minute. The US might just provide waivers. Letting Iran sort out the investors.

This trades significant leverage for opening the Strait of Hormuz. John Hannah warns the IRGC will rebuild military capacity. They will use economic windfalls for missiles. The US had leverage no president ever had. Now it is given away. Iran will drag out the process. They will buy time with sanctions relief.

Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an overseas international relations analyst. He frequently contributes to major European daily newspapers. His focus remains on geopolitical risk and sanctions law. He tracks state-backed capital flows and policy.