(SeaPRwire) –

By: Julian Holbrooke

The Trump administration’s recent Iran memorandum of understanding is framed as a first step to regional calm. It already carries fatal, unaddressed flaws. The largest of those flaws centers on Hezbollah. The Iran-backed terror group is no tangential negotiating side note. It is the Tehran regime’s most critical strategic asset. It carries decades of American blood on its hands. Any deal that fails to confront the group explicitly is built on unstable ground.

The official text of the 14-point U.S.-Iran MOU never mentions Hezbollah by name. Its opening clause demands permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. That includes an explicit reference to ending conflict in Lebanon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended this framing during a recent UAE press stop. Reporters pressed him on why Iran’s ballistic missile program was omitted from the Islamabad MOU. He argued proxy threats are fully covered by the broad ceasefire language. He noted no regional peace can hold while armed proxies launch cross-border attacks. Those groups include Hamas and Hezbollah, both with long records of deadly strikes. He framed concrete action on proxies as a later negotiation step. The State Department has declined to answer direct press questions about criticism of this approach. The omissions in the official text carry clear strategic weight. Lisa Daftari, a long-time editor tracking Iranian regime activity, laid out the stakes plainly. Hezbollah is no disposable, fringe proxy. It is the regime’s crown jewel forward defense asset. Tehran has poured billions into the group over nearly five decades. It built Hezbollah into a forward-deployed missile arsenal pointed straight at Israel. Losing Hezbollah would hit the mullahs harder than losing control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is why Lebanon ceasefire language sits in clause one of the MOU. It is no throwaway diplomatic nicety. It is the core concession Tehran pushed to lock in first.

Official U.S. rhetoric frames Hezbollah as an independent terror group. The organization earned its U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization designation back in 1997. Rubio spoke to reporters again during a stop in Kuwait. He was pressed on Israel’s continued military presence in Lebanon. He stated the U.S. wants Lebanon’s legitimate government to control its own territory. He noted Israel holds no quarrel with the Lebanese people, no territorial claims on Lebanon. The U.S. has launched a CENTCOM-run monitoring mechanism for the region. It is meant to deliver real-time, accurate data on fighting in Lebanon. That mechanism was set up after calls between Rubio, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Aoun posted a statement on X this week thanking U.S. officials for their focus on Lebanon. He said the U.S. effort aimed to end the war, strengthen Lebanese state authority, and protect national sovereignty. Washington is currently hosting resumed talks between Lebanese and Israeli officials. Those talks are scheduled to continue through Thursday. The on-the-ground reality clashes sharply with this neat diplomatic framing. Daftari confirmed the IRGC founded Hezbollah in 1982. It trained, armed, and funded the group from its very first days. Quds Force commanders remain embedded in Hezbollah’s command structure today. Treating the two as separate entities is a deliberate fiction Tehran exploits. FDD senior fellow Bill Roggio documented Hezbollah’s decades-long record of attacks on Americans. That record starts with the 1983 Beirut Marine barracks bombing. It includes U.S. embassy attacks, airplane hijackings, and support for Iraqi militias. Those militias killed more than 600 American service members. Hezbollah even trained al Qaeda operatives to build suicide car bombs. Those tactics were used in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. They were later refined and deployed across Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia. A May 2025 U.S. District Court ruling found Hezbollah liable for the torture of Amer Fakhoury. The Lebanese American was kidnapped in Lebanon in September 2019. He lost 60 pounds over six months of captivity. He died six months after returning home, of cancer diagnosed in that Lebanese prison. His daughters, co-founders of the Amer Foundation, are calling for accountability. They note lasting peace cannot come at the cost of justice for victims. They say any meaningful deal must secure the release of all wrongfully detained Americans. A U.S. official confirmed the administration’s commitment to that goal. The official offered no concrete details, citing security concerns for detained citizens. Foreign policy expert Walid Phares warned of a critical structural flaw in the talks. He said granting Iran a formal say over Lebanon negotiations is a major mistake. It risks collapsing the entire Washington-led Lebanese-Israeli talk track. Former IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus echoed that skepticism. He described Hezbollah as a jihadi group focused on waging war against Jews, Christians, and Westerners. He said the group cannot be negotiated with or coaxed into moderation. He argued the current moment offers a rare chance to roll back Iranian regional aggression. That would require coordinated political, information, and economic pressure. The pressure would target Hezbollah and its entire global financial network.

The current MOU structure gives Tehran its highest-priority win up front. It secures immediate breathing room for Hezbollah without binding, enforceable constraints. Vague references to future proxy negotiations will not erase decades of American blood. They will not return wrongfully detained Americans to their families. They will not deliver full, uncompromised sovereignty to the Lebanese state. The pendulum of regional power is already tilting back in Tehran’s favor, one unenforced diplomatic clause at a time.

Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an international relations analyst whose commentary runs in major European dailies, with 18 years covering Middle East proxy conflicts and great power diplomacy.