President-elect Trump labeled Turkey’s actions in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime an “unfriendly takeover” on Monday.
In a press conference at his Florida residence, he remarked, “I think Turkey is very smart. Turkey did an unfriendly takeover, without a lot of lives being lost. I can say that Assad was a butcher, what he did to children.”
Assad’s departure for Russia followed the swift takeover of western Syria by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al Qaeda-affiliated group, beginning November 27th. Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus fell to the HTS offensive.
Syria’s future remains uncertain as the HTS, designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. but with apparent external support, consolidates its power.
The end of the nearly 14-year civil war doesn’t eliminate threats, particularly against the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key regional adversary for Turkey.
The SDF has partnered with the U.S. in military operations, but Turkey, bordering Syria, considers the group linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and has clashed with them through the Syrian National Army (SNA).
The Kurds’ future is unclear, and Western experts worry about Turkey’s potentially overwhelming influence over Syria.
David Adesnik, Foundation for Defense of Democracies vice president for research, stated, “Assad’s fall greatly amplified Turkey’s influence in Syria, giving unprecedented influence to his partners and proxies. If the United States wants to ensure that Syria has the best chance to become a reasonably free and stable country, it needs to keep a very close eye on [Turkish President Recep] Erdogan,”
A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between the SDF and SNA around Manbij collapsed last week, according to sources, with the SNA amassing forces near Kobani, suggesting a resumption of hostilities.
The ceasefire terms remain unclear, and the White House and State Department haven’t responded to inquiries.
The SDF claims the U.S. mediation failed due to Turkey’s refusal to agree on key points, including safe passage for civilians and Manbij fighters. The SDF statement asserts that Turkey and its militias continued escalating despite U.S. efforts.
Turkey’s U.N. Mission hasn’t responded to requests for comment.
Charles Lister, Middle East Institute director, noted, “The re-eruption of tensions around Kobani underlines the extent to which Assad’s fall has ‘opened the gates’ for Turkey and its SNA proxies in northern Syria. For the first time, they’re free to act without a green light from Assad or Russia.”
The complex relationship between the SDF and SNA, backed by Washington and Ankara respectively, is complicated by the NATO alliance between the U.S. and Turkey.
Lister explained, “After the loss of Tel Rifat and Manbij in recent weeks, the only possible obstacle to further SDF losses is the presence of U.S. troops – but Turkey’s role within NATO has always limited U.S. options.”
He added, referencing General Kurilla’s recent visit to Syria, “[U.S. Central Command Gen. Michael’ Kurilla’s recent visit and the SDF’s willingness to cede Manbij spoke to the unprecedentedly isolated position the SDF currently faces. If the SDF is going to survive these challenges, it’s going to need to be extremely flexible, willing to concede on major issues, and rely heavily on U.S. diplomacy with Turkey.”