The President’s administration officially initiated the second phase of its strategy to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas this week, transitioning from a ceasefire framework to a post-ceasefire political and security stage for Gaza. This announcement immediately brought forth a central question now dominating expert analysis: who will ultimately disarm Hamas.

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff declared on Wednesday that phase two is underway, characterizing it as a shift “from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction.” He cautioned that Hamas must fully adhere to its obligations under the agreement, including the immediate return of the final deceased Israeli hostage.

“The U.S. anticipates Hamas will fully comply with its obligations, including the immediate repatriation of the final deceased hostage,” Witkoff posted on X. “Failure to do so will lead to severe repercussions.”

President Donald Trump reinforced the administration’s announcement on Thursday, stating on Truth Social that the had “OFFICIALLY entered the next phase of Gaza’s 20-Point Peace Plan,” following Witkoff’s remarks. Trump claimed that since the ceasefire, his team had facilitated “RECORD LEVELS of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, reaching Civilians at HISTORIC speed and scale,” adding that “even the United Nations has acknowledged this achievement as UNPRECEDENTED.”

Trump wrote that these developments had “set the stage for this next phase,” which he indicated would involve supporting a newly appointed Palestinian technocratic government, the of Gaza, to administer the territory during a transitional period. Trump identified himself as chairman of the Board of Peace and mentioned that the committee would receive backing from the board’s high representative.

Trump again warned that Hamas must “IMMEDIATELY honor its commitments, including the return of the final body to Israel, and proceed without delay to full Demilitarization,” adding, “They can do this the easy way, or the hard way.” Trump concluded the post by stating, “The people of Gaza have suffered long enough. The time is NOW. PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH.”

The new phase envisions the establishment of a in Gaza, while the United States collaborates with Egypt and other regional partners to ensure compliance and stability. However, the announcement provided minimal operational specifics, particularly regarding how Hamas would be disarmed after more than two decades of military control in the enclave.

In an exclusive interview with Digital, Jérôme Bonnafont, France’s ambassador to the United Nations, lauded the ceasefire as an “incredible achievement” and suggested that phase two could pave the way for peace in the absence of Hamas.

“The Trump plan is establishing a ceasefire, which is an incredible achievement,” Bonnafont stated. “It must lead to a massive reopening of humanitarian aid, and this will be announced within a couple of days.”

He mentioned that the subsequent stage involves an international stabilization force tasked with aiding reconstruction and assisting in Hamas’s disarmament.

“That would facilitate Hamas’s disarmament, and it will assist the Palestinian Authority in returning and democratically resuming the governance of Gaza as part of the Palestinian territory,” he explained.

Bonnafont underscored France’s prioritization of Israel’s security, especially given regional threats. He remarked, “We have consistently supported Israel, for instance, regarding threats from Iran to Israel’s existence.”

Concurrently, he stated that France holds the view that enduring security relies on establishing a demilitarized Palestinian state coexisting peacefully with Israel. Bonnafont asserted, “We believe that long-term security for Israel is achieved through the creation of Palestine. A Palestine that must be independent yet demilitarized and at peace with Israel.”

The United Nations also endorsed the phase two announcement, labeling it “an important step” while stressing compliance with international law and current U.N. resolutions.

Security analysts from Israel and the U.S. generally concur that phase two’s success hinges on confronting Hamas’s weaponry and coercive capabilities.

Dr. Avner Golov, vice president of the Israeli policy institute Mind Israel, informed Digital that, “The central challenge is ,” Golov stated. “The only parties genuinely prepared to dismantle Hamas’s military assets are the Israelis, and as long as Hamas retains its arms, there should be no reconstruction and no IDF pullback from the current defensive line.”

“Ultimately, a credible military threat from the IDF against Hamas is essential,” he asserted. “Without such a threat, I see no possibility of Hamas voluntarily disarming.”

Golov also highlighted what he termed a disparity between diplomatic pledges and actual implementation by regional players. He remarked, “The key test is . They signed a document committing to Hamas’s disarmament, but they have since failed to show genuine dedication to its execution.”

Jonathan Ruhe, an American Strategy fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), contended that phase two offers a but sidesteps the most politically challenging choice.

Ruhe commented, “The peace plan provides a comprehensive framework for Gaza’s reconstruction and improved governance. However, it remains silent on the ‘who’ and ‘how’ of disarming Hamas.”

He stated, “As long as Hamas can disrupt aid distribution, intimidate and kill Gazans seeking a better future, and threaten renewed conflict with Israel, international investment in reconstruction and reform will be almost nonexistent.”

Although Trump’s plan advocates for Hamas’s voluntary disarmament, Ruhe also noted that Hamas has minimal incentive to comply. He explained, “Hamas refuses because it believes it emerged victorious from the war. There is now an urgent necessity to determine who will forcefully disarm Hamas.”

Ruhe observed that a authorizes an International Stabilization Force to disarm Hamas, but he indicated that no nation has been prepared to deploy troops for this purpose. Instead, he mentioned that the Trump plan details a more restricted role for international forces, concentrating on securing aid locations and preventing Hamas resupply.

Ruhe stated, “Both Trump and Netanyahu suggested Israel might need to disarm Hamas. However, IDF ground forces require rest and refitting after two years of arduous combat, and a significant offensive risks jeopardizing the international coalition essential for phase two.”

He proposed that thoroughly vetted private military contractors, supervised by U.S. security officials instead of U.S. Central Command, could participate, although he conceded that such an action would entail “hard fighting.”

Despite diplomatic progress, analysts speaking with Digital warned that time might be a disadvantage for the plan. Ruhe commented, “The current situation benefits Hamas as it further solidifies its control over its portion of Gaza. Announcing the Board of Peace serves significant diplomatic objectives, but it will have little practical impact unless and until Hamas is disarmed.”

Golov reiterated this assessment. He stated, “As long as Hamas retains its weapons, there should be no reconstruction and no IDF withdrawal from the current defensive line.”