JERUSALEM—Following President Trump’s recent threat to Iran, the Islamic Republic rejected his offer, conveyed via a letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to initiate discussions on dismantling Tehran’s alleged nuclear weapons program.
Trump stated to NBC on Saturday, “If they don’t agree to a deal, bombing will occur.” He also mentioned the possibility of reimposing tariffs, similar to those from four years prior, if a deal is not reached.
Trump also indicated that discussions were underway between U.S. and Iranian officials.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on Sunday, according to the Associated Press, that Iran does not avoid talks, but rather, the violation of promises has been the source of issues. He added, “They must prove that they can build trust.” The White House has yet to respond to Iran’s rejection of talks, the AP noted.
Pezeshkian did note, however, that Iran’s response to the letter indicated that indirect negotiations with the Trump administration remained a possibility.
The return to indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran’s leadership raises questions about whether Trump would authorize military action to eliminate Iran’s extensive nuclear weapons program.
Given Iran’s two major missile and drone attacks on Israel last year, Trump could also target Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure.
Despite indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, which has been labeled the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism by both Democratic and Republican administrations, Iran has not abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Digital that the Iranians “do not want to provide President Trump with a reason to strike Iran’s nuclear program. Indirect, private responses may be delivered through various mediators. Some Iranian officials seem to believe there are divisions within President Trump’s national security team regarding Iran. This would explain Iran’s foreign minister’s recent comment about President Trump’s letter to the supreme leader presenting both challenges and opportunities.”
Brodsky added that some Iranian officials are trying to bypass experienced advisors to President Trump, like his national security advisor and secretary of state, who want Iran to dismantle its entire nuclear program in accordance with President Trump’s consistent position on the matter. These officials are instead trying to cultivate individuals around President Trump who lack experience with Iran or are considered non-traditional conservatives more open to their proposals.”
Trump threatened “bad things” would happen to Iran if they don’t negotiate on nuclear issues. He stated on Friday, “My strong preference is that we resolve this with Iran, but if we don’t, bad things are going to happen to Iran.”
Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, nearing the 90% required for weapons-grade. Experts believe they could develop a nuclear weapon within weeks if they decided to take the final steps. Digital reported in late March that Iran’s regime has enriched enough uranium to , according to a U.N. atomic agency report.
Alireza Nader, an Iranian-American expert on Iran, told Digital, “Khamenei may be signaling his lack of interest in negotiations, but his regime desperately needs economic relief. Otherwise, another popular uprising could erupt against him. Khamenei is at a disadvantage.”
Widespread discontent exists among Iranians regarding the rule of 85-year-old Khamenei.
Ever since Trump sent the letter to Khamenei, Iran has escalated the situation, releasing video footage of its underground “missile city.”
Trump also told FOX Business, “I would prefer to negotiate a deal.”
He continued, “I’m not sure everyone agrees with me, but we can reach an agreement that would be just as good as a military victory. But time is of the essence.”
“Something will happen one way or another. I hope Iran, and I’ve written them a letter, will negotiate, because if we have to engage militarily, it will be terrible for them.”
Brodsky said, “That means the Islamic Republic may dangle a JCPOA-like deal, with minor modifications from the previous 2015 agreement. Iranian media has been hyping such an arrangement.”
In 2018, Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) because he believed it failed to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and didn’t adequately restrict Tehran’s missile program and support for Islamist terrorism.
Brodsky stated, “These Iranian officials believe they can lure the Trump administration into this arrangement, and then President Trump will miraculously get the entire Republican Party, along with Democrats, to support the deal, making it more politically durable than the 2015 JCPOA. This is despite President Trump’s consistent and strong record in rejecting the JCPOA framework. It reflects desperation in Tehran and a desire to buy time with another failed diplomatic gambit. However, it’s crucial to be aware of the games the Iranians will (and are already) playing.”
While Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified on Tuesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” she did note that Iran increased its enriched uranium stockpile.
In contrast to U.S. intelligence since 2003, Digital has previously reported that European intelligence agencies believe Iran is working toward testing an atomic weapon and has sought illicit technology for its nuclear weapons program.
Counter-proliferation experts, like physicist and nuclear specialist David Albright, have told that European intelligence institutions use an updated definition of construction of weapons of mass destruction to assess Iran’s progress in contrast to .
Digital sent press queries to the U.S. State Department and the National Security Council.
Digital’s Morgan Phillips and the Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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