OTTAWA – Election analysts suggest that the Liberal Party, currently in power, is on track for a fourth consecutive victory. This marks a significant shift, as they were previously behind the Conservative opposition earlier in the year, seemingly due to concerns over threats from the U.S. impacting Canada’s economy and independence.
Angus Reid of the Angus Reid Institute stated that polls indicate a likely Liberal government, making a Conservative win a major surprise.
On Monday morning, Trump posted on social media, addressing Canadian voters. He suggested that electing a leader with the strength to significantly cut taxes, dramatically increase military power at no cost, and quadruple the size of key industries with zero tariffs or taxes would be beneficial if Canada became the 51st state of the United States.
A December 30 Angus Reid Institute poll showed the Conservatives with a commanding 45% support, compared to the Liberals’ 11%. However, a more recent poll released on Saturday showed the Liberals leading with 44%, four points ahead of the Conservatives at 40%.
Reid commented on the unexpected nature of the election, noting that Canadians seemed dissatisfied with the Liberals’ progressive policies, overspending, and Trudeau’s leadership.
He explained that the political landscape shifted with Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister in January, Trump’s inauguration as president, and Mark Carney’s appointment as prime minister and Liberal leader in March.
Reid stated that Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats immediately became the dominant issue, allowing Mark Carney to assert Canada’s sovereignty and commitment to resist such pressures.
The election has largely been a contest between the Liberals and Conservatives, with each leader emphasizing strengths that their critics viewed as weaknesses.
Carney, 60, a former Goldman Sachs executive without prior elected office experience before winning the Liberal leadership, has urged voters to consider his experience managing the central banks of Canada and England, as well as his role as a UN Special Envoy, particularly during the economic crisis exacerbated by Trump’s threats.
Critics have labeled him as detached from ordinary citizens, citing his extensive time spent outside Canada, according to a former Conservative Party campaign manager.
Poilievre, on the other hand, is campaigning on a platform of “change.” However, opponents argue that the 45-year-old Conservative leader is an establishment figure, having been a Member of Parliament since 2004, and that the change he promotes is overshadowed by the shift in Liberal leadership from Trudeau to Carney.
An Ipsos poll for Global News, released on April 21, showed the Liberals with a slim three-point lead at 41% over the Conservatives at 38%.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, noted that the Liberals’ lead had shrunk since mid-April, “because of the effect of Donald Trump, both positive and negative.”
Bricker explained that Trump’s talk of a “51st state” brought attention back to the Liberals’ strength in dealing with him.
However, Bricker added that Trump’s recent focus has shifted away from Canada to issues such as China, U.S. funding of Harvard, and global trade deals.
This shift, according to Bricker, has led many Canadians to refocus on affordability, considering the Liberals’ decade-long governance.
Ultimately, Bricker stated that the election outcome hinges on the results in Ontario, especially in Toronto and the surrounding 905 region, which holds a significant number of electoral districts and voters.
Bricker noted that the 905 region has consistently supported the Liberals in the past, and another such victory would secure their fourth term.
Carney stated that, if re-elected, he would meet with Trump promptly to discuss a new trade and security agreement between Canada and the U.S.
Reid suggested that the Liberals’ resurgence is due not only to increased support for Carney but also to Poilievre’s failure to capitalize on the Trump threat and his continued focus on issues like the carbon tax, which Carney addressed early in his term.
Reid finds it ironic that Trump’s actions have hurt the campaign of Poilievre, whom he sees as a Canadian counterpart with similar “anti-woke” and smaller-government policies that appeal to the American right.
Elections Canada reported a record number of early votes cast over the Easter weekend. Due to the country’s multiple time zones, the election results are expected late Monday evening.
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