As the Bashar al-Assad regime falls and attacks on US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rise, worries about a renewed ISIS threat are intensifying.
President-elect Donald Trump may face another ISIS conflict as the SDF grapples with threats from both ISIS and Turkey.
Reuters reported that Turkish-backed forces killed five SDF soldiers in northern Syria on Saturday.
These attacks followed a ceasefire brokered by the Biden administration, amidst increased US and SDF efforts to counter ISIS.
National security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that the resurgence of ISIS is his “biggest concern,” noting ISIS exploits power vacuums, such as those created by conflict in North Africa.
He stated, “Our goal is to support the SDF—the Kurds—and keep ISIS in check,” acknowledging the ungoverned spaces in Syria resulting from the ongoing conflict.
The US has long balanced its anti-ISIS campaign with its NATO alliance with Turkey, despite Turkey viewing the SDF as linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that the SDF and Assad regime were ISIS’s primary opponents. With the SDF under pressure from Turkish proxies and the Assad regime weakened, concerns about ISIS expansion are justified.
Roggio added that Turkey aims to eliminate the SDF and will exploit this opportunity, anticipating increased attacks.
The Biden administration has intensified its anti-ISIS campaign, recently striking over 75 ISIS sites, targeting leaders, operatives, and camps, as confirmed by US Central Command (CENTCOM).
This operation coincided with the December 8th fall of Damascus, following the takeover of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), aided by Turkey-backed forces.
Furthermore, CENTCOM conducted a precision airstrike in eastern Syria on Thursday, targeting ISIS in an area where, according to Syrian news outlets, ISIS has seized former Syrian military assets amid the chaos.
SDF forces captured 18 ISIS terrorists and suspected collaborators near Raqqa on Sunday, in an operation reportedly conducted with international coalition forces, though CENTCOM hasn’t confirmed US involvement.
However, concerns persist that increased attacks from Turkey could hinder the SDF’s operations, potentially creating challenges for the incoming Trump administration as it seeks to prevent ISIS resurgence while managing US-Turkey relations, particularly given Turkey’s expected influence over the new Syrian government.
“We continue to monitor the situation in Syria,” said Brian Hughes, Trump-Vance Transition spokesperson, “President Trump is committed to diminishing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting Americans here at home.”