The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, has expressed growing concern over the dwindling time available for a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview with AFP during the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Grossi highlighted the increasing tension in the international landscape and the shrinking room for maneuver. He stressed the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to address the situation.

Grossi’s warning comes ahead of his visit to Tehran this week for high-level meetings with Iranian government officials. The purpose of these meetings is to engage in technical discussions related to Iran’s commitment to the Joint Statement agreed upon in March 2023. Grossi landed in Tehran on Wednesday and met with the spokesperson for Iran’s state atomic energy agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi.

Prior to his trip, Grossi emphasized the importance of substantive progress in implementing the Joint Statement. He stated that his visit to Tehran would be crucial in this regard. While the IAEA is permitted to inspect all nuclear sites as part of its safeguarding duties, Grossi has called for increased visibility. He believes that given the scale and ambition of Iran’s nuclear program, greater transparency is essential.

Concerns about Iran’s nuclear program have intensified since the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, despite IAEA assurances that Iran was not in violation of its nuclear agreements. Grossi is expected to press Iran for increased access to its nuclear sites and explanations regarding traces of uranium found at undeclared locations.

The IAEA director general has been vocal about the lack of oversight over Iran’s nuclear program since Tehran ceased adhering to its JCPOA commitments. Iran has since increased its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to 60% purity, nearing the level required for weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90% purity.

Grossi’s trip coincides with a pivotal moment in geopolitical relations, as President-elect Trump is set to return to the Oval Office in January. Trump is expected to adopt a hardline approach towards Tehran. During his first term, he deemed the JCPOA a “terrible deal” and withdrew the U.S. from it.

Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran declared the agreement null and void and asserted its right to pursue its nuclear program under international law. While other co-signatories, including Russia, urged Iran to remain compliant with the JCPOA, Moscow withdrew its diplomatic encouragement in 2022 amidst escalating tensions with the West.

Grossi described the JCPOA as “an empty shell.” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that moving beyond the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the nuclear deal and employing Cold War-era nuclear deterrence tactics is the most effective way to prevent Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. He argues that Iran’s irreversible nuclear advancements under Biden’s policy of maximum deference have rendered any meaningful negotiations impossible.

Despite the tense geopolitical framework, marked by Western unity against Russia and Iran in the wake of the Ukraine war and Israel’s struggle against Iranian-backed forces, Grossi remains unfazed by the prospect of another Trump presidency. He noted his previous successful collaboration with the first Trump administration.