Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated over the disputed Kashmir region following the killing of 26 tourists, mostly from India, an attack New Delhi attributes to Pakistan.

Pakistan denies involvement in the attack on tourists in Kashmir. Since the incident, both countries have increased tensions by enacting diplomatic and trade sanctions and raising concerns about potential military conflict.

Here are five reasons why an India-Pakistan flare-up is significant:

Facing strong domestic pressure, India has suggested a limited military response against Pakistan, labeling the recent attack a “terror attack” with “cross-border links.” Pakistan has stated it will respond militarily to any such action.

This raises concerns that escalation by either side could lead to a larger conflict. The last major clash between the two countries occurred in 2019, when a suicide car bombing resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian soldiers.

In 2021, both nations recommitted to a ceasefire along their shared border, which had largely been upheld until a recent exchange of fire between their respective armies broke the relative calm.

Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, raising fears that a conventional conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange.

India and Pakistan engaged in two major wars in 1965 and 1971. In 1974, India’s first nuclear tests heightened the stakes of any military confrontation, leading to a nuclear arms race, with Pakistan achieving the same milestone in 1998.

Since then, a significant border skirmish in 1999 resulted in at least 1,000 combatant deaths, ending only after U.S. intervention.

India and China, geopolitical rivals, experienced border clashes in the Himalayas in 2020. While relations have improved, both countries maintain substantial troop deployments along their borders, which are also contiguous to Pakistan’s, forming a unique three-way nuclear junction.

China also controls a portion of the Kashmir region claimed by India.

Furthermore, China is a key ally of Pakistan, assisting in its missile program development, which poses additional military concerns for India. Concurrently, India maintains strong defense ties with the U.S., which aims to limit China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Experts suggest that any conflict between India and Pakistan is likely to involve their strategic partners.

Following the recent attack, India suspended a crucial treaty regulating river water flow to Pakistan, which responded by stating that any attempt to stop the water flow would be considered an “act of war.”

Under the Indus Water Treaty, India is obligated to allow six rivers to flow freely into Pakistan. Restricting this flow could severely impact Pakistan’s agriculture, which is already struggling with water shortages.

This situation also presents a significant environmental challenge, as water insecurity is a major concern in both countries due to growing populations and climate change.

Rights groups — — have criticized India for human rights abuses in Indian-controlled Kashmir, including civilian killings and arbitrary arrests, resulting from a crackdown by Indian forces. This has negatively impacted India’s human rights record and raised concerns about insufficient international pressure on New Delhi.

Militants opposing Indian rule have also been responsible for the deaths of numerous civilians, including Hindu pilgrims.

India has employed military force against militants as part of its efforts to eliminate “terrorism,” which it claims threatens regional stability.