(AsiaGameHub) –   Financial services firm Macquarie has voiced strong confidence in the US iGaming sector, pointing to its robust performance during a period of mixed results for sports betting.

The iGaming Sector Holds a Strong Position

Macquarie noted that US online casino gaming is continuing to grow, even though it has a far smaller regulatory footprint compared to sports betting. While more than half of all US states now offer at least one form of legal betting, only a small number have formally launched iGaming to date.

Latest performance data indicates the online gambling sector’s aggregate Q1 EBITDA came in 9% above initial projections, signaling that the industry is healthy and expanding. However, deeper analysis shows that iGaming’s growth rate is outpacing that of sports betting, creating a clear performance gap between different types of operators.

Macquarie highlighted Rush Street Interactive (RSI) as one of the sector’s top performers, reporting that its EBITDA surpassed earlier forecasts by 25%. This outcome led the firm to adjust its 2026 outlook, lifting RSI’s EBITDA projections by 9%. By contrast, Super Group beat expectations by 5%, leading to a 1% upward bump to its forecasts.

At the same time, major sportsbook brands including DraftKings and Flutter (FanDuel) were forced to cut their full-year EBITDA forecasts.

According to Macquarie, this performance gap stems from a range of factors, including challenges sportsbooks face from the prediction markets industry. The firm also named the inherent volatility of sports betting as an additional contributing cause.

Industry analysts also noted that the divide points to stronger structural growth and clearer margin visibility for iGaming-focused companies.

Data Reveals Disconnect Between Forecast Adjustments and Share Price Movements

Meanwhile, Macquarie added that recent results show even minor underperformance can have a disproportionate impact on a company’s share price. It used Sportradar as an example: the firm’s shares dropped 23%, despite only a 1% cut to its projected EBITDA.

On the flip side, better-than-expected results generally boost investor confidence, as demonstrated by RSI. A 9% upward revision to RSI’s 2026 projected EBITDA triggered a 22% jump in the company’s share price.

However, Macquarie explained that this apparent disconnect between share prices and earnings projections is not caused only by changes to earnings outlooks, but also by a host of other unrelated factors.

In any case, Macquarie remains bullish on RSI and has raised the company’s target share price to $30.