(AsiaGameHub) –   A fresh wave of allegations is drawing renewed scrutiny to prediction markets, following blockchain analysts’ discovery of a seemingly highly coordinated string of lucrative wagers linked to U.S. military operations in Iran. Research by analytics firm Bubblemaps shows that nine interconnected Polymarket accounts jointly earned $2.4 million by precisely forecasting sensitive geopolitical developments.

The Accounts Attempted to Mimic Normal Behavior

According to a recent CBS report, the suspicious trading activity occurred around U.S. military actions in late February, fueling concerns that confidential information may be leaking onto prediction platforms. Bubblemaps states that the implicated accounts were set up just days before the initial American strikes. These wallets demonstrated a nearly flawless record on events related to Iran, correctly anticipating the timing of military strikes, leadership changes, and a temporary ceasefire agreement.

Beyond their remarkable accuracy, the accounts also displayed a consistent pattern: each included small losing bets, typically under several hundred dollars, scattered throughout their trading history. Investigators believe these losses were a deliberate tactic to simulate ordinary user behavior and evade detection, while their larger wagers were consistently well-placed.

We identified nine connected Polymarket accounts that collectively made $2.4 million by betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations.

Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps CEO

Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that determining the nationality of these accounts is almost impossible without direct confirmation from Polymarket. The sole identifying detail was one account’s username, “whopperlover.” Nonetheless, the group’s trading behavior has remained consistent, concentrating almost entirely on speculating about U.S. involvement in Iran.

The Regulatory Response Remains Slow and Largely Ineffective

Bubblemaps’ investigation found that millions in profits were funneled to centralized exchanges like Bybit, Binance, and HTX, frequently routed through intermediary services to obscure the transaction trail. These methods have complicated efforts to determine whether the accounts belong to a single individual or a coordinated network.

This revelation comes on the heels of a recent case in which a U.S. soldier stationed at Fort Bragg was arrested after being charged with exploiting insider information to profit from military actions in Venezuela. Platforms such as Polymarket maintain they merely offer a venue for price discovery, where users act based on their own beliefs and publicly available information. Yet, these two incidents raise concerns that prediction markets may be emerging as a favored channel for insider trading.

The growing controversy has prompted some lawmakers to call for tighter regulations on prediction markets, while others argue that current financial laws already address such misconduct. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pledged to pursue traders who misuse improperly obtained data. However, the agency acknowledged that not all informed trading constitutes illegality, leaving room for potential exploitation.