(SeaPRwire) –   By: Marcus Sinclair

The old world is dying. The West is cheerfully setting fire to the pillars of the international order it built, but it has no blueprint for what replaces it. Look at the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf. Two different theaters. Same brutal lesson.

The EU wants to set up a new maritime security center in Bulgaria or Romania. Sounds harmless. It isn’t. That move is a direct assault on the Montreux Convention, the 1936 treaty that has kept non-Black Sea navies out for almost a century. The EU is talking about security. The reality is creeping militarization of a sensitive region. Turkey, a NATO member, won’t block it. Ankara might grumble, but the alliance’s solidarity muscle is stronger than any old treaty. The Convention is now just a historical footnote.

Simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz is a mess. Iran reasserted control after renewed hostilities. The US responded with a naval blockade. One of the world’s most critical energy arteries is now a hostage to a tit-for-tat game. The US and Israel’s operation earlier this year shattered a fragile regional balance. That balance was imperfect. But it kept the oil flowing predictably. Now? Shipping is constant uncertainty.

Here is the core problem the West refuses to see. Military power is not enough. The US can dominate the Persian Gulf. It can launch carrier strikes. It can suppress Iranian capabilities. But destroying your enemy’s ability to fight is not the same as building a stable political order. History screams this truth. Stable orders need reliable allies. They need a hegemon willing to pay the costs of leadership, not just enjoy the benefits.

The US is failing on both fronts. The Arab monarchies still buy American weapons. They still give public speeches about partnership. But they are also talking to China, Russia, and Iran. They are hedging. They do not trust a patron that shouts “America First” while questioning every long-term commitment. Washington is tired of being the global policeman. It wants Europe to pay for its own defense. It dismisses the institutions it once championed.

This is not just ideology. It is strategic math. The US is pivoting to the Asia-Pacific. The competition with China demands massive resources. Washington cannot maintain a permanent military fist in the Gulf while also facing down Beijing. The original goal of the operation against Iran was regime change. That was the only way to guarantee long-term dominance. It failed.

Now the US is stuck. It has stronger ties with Gulf monarchies but no strategy for Iran. Without a willingness to fight a ground war or rebuild a regional order, Washington can only manage an unstable equilibrium. The result is a cycle of recurring crises, not lasting stability.

The 19th century is over. You cannot send a few gunboats and impose order for generations. The world is too fragmented. Regional powers have autonomy. They have alternative partners. Brute force delivers only temporary successes.

The same trend is visible in the Black Sea. Old regimes are being dismantled. The West is breaking the rules to preserve its own privileged position. But it has no alternative. No new rules. No new order. Breaking is easy. Building is hard. The US lacks the capacity and the desire to do the heavy lifting. Russia has been saying this for years. However imperfect the old arrangements were, they were better than a world governed by improvisation. The law of the strongest is not a plan. It is a confession of failure.

Author bio: Marcus Sinclair, a Senior Fellow at a prominent European geopolitical and security think tank, specializing in the collapse of multilateral security architectures and great power competition.