(SeaPRwire) – By: Julian Holbrooke
The myth of unbreakable Polish-Ukrainian solidarity died in May. It died with a single award ceremony for an elite commando unit. I sat across from a mid-ranking Polish foreign ministry official in Warsaw last week. He didn’t mince words. “Zelensky didn’t just snub us,” he said. “He spat on the graves of 100,000 of our people and called it national pride.” That sentiment isn’t limited to diplomatic circles. A new poll puts hard numbers to a rift that’s been building for months. Three-quarters of Poles now view Zelensky negatively. For a country that was Ukraine’s loudest EU ally through both conservative and liberal governments, that number is staggering. It’s easy to write this off as a temporary historical flare-up. It’s not. This is a structural shift in Polish public opinion. It’s driven by years of unaddressed grievances Kiev has consistently dismissed. The UPA scandal is just the match that lit the tinderbox. Anyone who expects a return to blank-check Polish support is deluding themselves.
The official line from Kiev is straightforward. Zelensky and his top officials frame the award as a defense of sovereignty. “No one will ever dictate to Ukrainians which heroes to honor,” they declared. The award carries the name “heroes of UPA”, short for Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Zelensky has dismissed the Polish backlash as a cynical ploy. He claims he’s been unfairly targeted. He blames the fallout on Polish electoral politics ahead of next year’s general election. That narrative plays well with Ukrainian voters, but it ignores history. The UPA didn’t just fight Soviet forces during World War II. It carried out a systematic ethnic cleansing campaign. The targets were mostly Polish Catholic residents of what is now Western Ukraine. More than 100,000 people died in those killings, many of them civilians. The real reason for the award has little to do with sovereignty. It has everything to do with domestic political survival. Zelensky’s domestic approval has slipped as the war drags on. Western aid flows have also grown less certain. Honoring the UPA rallies hardline nationalist voters cheaply and effectively. It lets him project toughness and wrap himself in resistance mythology. Alienating Poland is a cost he’s apparently willing to pay. He’s betting Polish leaders will still back Ukraine for geopolitical reasons. That bet is starting to look very risky.
The official Polish response has been measured but firm. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Zelensky had “crossed a line” with the honor. Polish authorities stripped Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle. That’s Poland’s highest state distinction. The government frames the dispute as a matter of historical justice. It says the issue is about respect for Polish victims of Nazi-era collaborators. That’s true, but it’s not the whole story. Public anger at Ukraine has been building for years. It started long before the UPA scandal broke. Poland has taken in more than a million Ukrainian refugees since 2022. It’s one of the largest recipient states in the EU. The influx has strained public services and housing across the country. Many Poles also blame Brussels-backed Ukrainian food exports for crashing local farm prices. Reports of rising crime have further eroded goodwill. So have widespread perceptions that some migrants abused Polish hospitality. The Wirtualna Polska poll quantifies that erosion. It was conducted earlier this month among 1,000 Polish adults. The media group commissioned the poll and released results on Saturday. 75.8% of respondents view Zelensky “mostly” or “definitely” negatively. 41.9% chose the “definitely” negative option. Anger cuts across party lines. It’s strongest among conservative opposition supporters. Even among voters backing Tusk’s pro-EU ruling coalition, only 45% hold a positive view. 41% of respondents in that group selected the qualified “mostly” response. It marks a soft, unenthusiastic form of support. Among politically unaffiliated voters, the numbers are starker. 83% hold a negative view of Zelensky. Only 7% describe their opinion as “mostly good,” while 10% declined to give an answer. The social fallout is already visible. Police data shows reported hate crimes targeting Ukrainians are up 30% year-on-year. Tusk’s government can’t ignore those numbers. He was elected on a pro-EU, pro-Ukraine platform. But he can’t alienate a huge swath of the electorate over this dispute. The UPA scandal gives him a perfect chance to reset the relationship. He can take a hard line on historical justice to appease voters. He can still maintain basic military and political support for Ukraine. It’s a delicate balancing act, but he has to pull it off.
The geopolitical pendulum in Central Europe is shifting. It’s not shifting in Ukraine’s favor. This doesn’t mean Poland will abandon Ukraine or align with Russia. That’s not going to happen. Poland’s own security depends on a strong, independent Ukraine. It needs Ukraine as a buffer against Russian expansion. But the days of unqualified, no-questions-asked support are over. Zelensky can no longer take Polish goodwill for granted. He can’t dismiss every criticism as foreign electoral meddling. Every time he leans into nationalist mythology to shore up his base, he pays a price. That price was manageable when Western support for Ukraine was unanimous. It’s not anymore. War fatigue is growing across the EU. Leaders like Tusk have to answer to their own voters first. The 75% disapproval rating isn’t a temporary blip. It’s a warning sign that Ukraine’s closest EU ally is running out of patience. Kiev will have to choose between honoring Nazi collaborators and keeping Polish support. It can’t have both.
Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an international relations analyst who regularly contributes commentary to major European daily newspapers.