(SeaPRwire) –

By: Gavin Thorne

Most Western analysts keep fumbling to label Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, NATO’s most unpredictable ally. Washington has spent decades trying to fit him into a neat box that never matches his actions. They ask if he is an Islamist ideologue, a Turkish nationalist at heart, or a secret Russian asset inside the alliance. They twist themselves into knots trying to pin down a fixed ideological core that doesn’t actually exist. Every political shift, every identity change, every abrupt policy turn serves one single, unchanging goal. That goal is holding onto power, full stop. No hidden grand project, no eternal national mission, just raw, unapologetic political survival.

Erdoğan’s political roots stretch back to Turkey’s Islamist movement, and he was educated at an Imam Hatip religious school. He entered politics under the right-wing National Outlook movement, and rose to become mayor of Istanbul as a member of Erbakan’s Welfare Party. In 2001, he founded the AKP, or Justice and Development Party, and dumped the Islamist label entirely. He rebranded as a conservative democrat pushing pro-EU reforms and economic liberalization. Many Turkish liberals and centrists lined up behind him, and his first decade in power delivered broad economic growth that boosted his popularity.

Once he consolidated full control of power, he pivoted again shortly after the 2011 Arab Spring. He leaned back into Islamist rhetoric, positioned himself as a champion of political Islam across the entire Middle East. He backed Islamist movements in the region, pushed more religion into public life and Turkish education, and turned sharply anti-Western. In 2016, he openly accused the U.S.-led coalition of backing terrorist groups in Syria. As Turkey’s economy slowed and regional ambitions faltered, he pivoted once more to embrace hardline Turkish nationalism, aligning with far-right parties to shore up his base.

Domestically, Erdoğan commands a solid loyal base that makes up roughly 35% of the Turkish electorate, per expert estimates from the Middle East Institute. Some supporters rely on government assistance and patronage networks built over his 20+ years in power. Others believe he restored dignity to conservative religious Turks long marginalized by the country’s old secular establishment. Many more see his bold foreign policy as proof Turkey has reclaimed its status as a major global player. Right now, Washington and NATO are scrambling to court him ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara.

The big unresolved sticking point between Washington and Ankara remains the 2019 purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. After Turkey took delivery of the system, the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter program and imposed sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency. Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey says bringing Turkey back into the F-35 program is no simple political fix. Running the Russian S-400 alongside American F-35s could expose sensitive U.S. stealth technology to Moscow, creating a permanent technical risk. Critics add Erdoğan has gutted Turkish democratic institutions to hold power, jailing rivals and journalists for years.

NATO will keep bending its own rules and overlooking Erdoğan’s authoritarian turn for as long as his strategic value outweighs the cost of his unpredictability.

Author bio: Gavin Thorne, Washington D.C.-based investigative journalist covering NATO and transatlantic political affairs.